Osisko Gold Royalties: Don't Overpay For This Industry Laggard

Summary

  • Osisko Gold Royalties is up 90% in the past four weeks off of its mid-March lows.
  • While the company had a solid year operationally with a timely acquisition and continued exploration success at its cornerstone royalty asset, the company's earnings growth has lagged the industry.
  • Unfortunately, while the stock has seen a sharp rise off of its lows, this bounce has done nothing to improve the technical picture.
  • Based on this, I see no reason to chase the stock above $8.80 as it rarely benefits to pay up for stocks that are weaker than their peers technically and fundamentally.

It’s been a strong start to April for the Gold Miners Index (GDX) as the Index has seen a miraculous recovery from its mid-March lows near $17.00. While a few of the leading names in the group are within a stone’s throw of new highs, others have seen 80% plus rallies off of their lows, but are still in the negative return column year-to-date. One of these companies is Osisko Gold Royalties (NYSE:OR), a niche royalty and streaming company that’s down 10% year-to-date despite its parabolic rise in the past few weeks. Unfortunately, while the stock’s recovery has been sharp, it has done nothing to fix the technical picture, as the stock is one of the few miners still below its 200-day moving average. Based on this, I believe investors looking to buy the stock would be wise to wait for a better entry point and not chase the stock above $8.80.

(Source: TC2000.com)

It was a busy last year for Osisko Gold Royalties (OR) as the company completed its offtake agreement for the Brucejack Mine with Pretium Resources (PVG), and announced the takeover of Barkerville Gold Mines in Q3, arguably the best acquisition from a price paid standpoint in FY-2019. For those unfamiliar with the deal, the company paid US$257 million to acquire Barkerville and its Cariboo Project in British Columbia, a deposit that boasts a resource of over 4 million ounces of high-grade gold. At a $1,500/oz gold price, the company paid less than 0.60x P/NAV for the project, given that the After-Tax NPV (5%) stands at US$441 million. Unfortunately, while this was an exceptional deal for Osisko, it deviated from the typical royalty/streaming model, and the market punished the stock.

(Source: TC2000.com)

Elsewhere in the company’s royalty portfolio, Victoria Gold’s Eagle Gold Mine is finally in production

This article was written by

30.11K Followers

Taylor Dart is an individual investor with over 16 years of trading experience, with his primary focus being precious metals developers, producers and royalty/streaming companies.

Taylor leads the investing group Alluvial Gold Research, where he offers portfolios with entry/exit points, Buy/Sell alerts, and proprietary sentiment indicators for gold and silver miners. Learn more.

- Disclosure: I am not a financial advisor. All articles are my opinion - they are not suggestions to buy or sell any securities. Perform your own due diligence and consult a financial professional before trading or investing.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Disclaimer: Taylor Dart is not a Registered Investment Advisor or Financial Planner. This writing is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Taylor Dart expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.

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