Market Pulse
The COVID-19 pandemic has thrust biopharma to the forefront in the search for a solution. And biotechs will remain at the investing forefront as the quest for anti-viral treatments and vaccines continues to be the race for the holy grail that can restore economic activity around the world. It is truly a save-the-world moment for the drug industry, an industry that has been widely despised and consistently polls towards the bottom, even below the Federal Government, in reputation surveys. But healthcare now faces an opportunity to do good against a common viral enemy which can recast its reputation and raise valuations.
We look at the key players and the outlook for biotechs and the stock market. This report builds on the series of earlier reports including, Stock Market's Next Move and Healthcare in a Bear Market.
Key Statistic
Daily death tolls are now plateauing in the US for the past week. This is a positive sign as it marks the first step towards recovery.
Daily Death Tolls
Source: FT.com (click for a clearer image)
However, as can be observed from the chart, the US has suffered the most severe daily death toll with a 7-day (weekly) moving average peak of ~2000 fatalities. Thus, the plateauing stage will also be a much longer sideways process similar to the worst affected countries, like Italy and Spain (peak ~900/day). A quicker drop-off like in Australia, South Korea, and Austria is not possible since they were much more successful during the containment phase of the pandemic management.
What does this mean for the economic recovery?
A daily death toll is a number that distills down the entire pandemic into a single statistic that is a clear tracker of the virus's impact. It is simple to assimilate by the population, is relatively more accurate
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