Big Oil Dividend Comparison: Shell, Exxon, Chevron, BP And Total

May 15, 2020 6:33 AM ETShell plc (SHEL) Stock, , , , 405 Comments
Ray Merola
14.28K Followers

Summary

  • Royal Dutch Shell cut its dividend 66 percent.  It's not cut the payout since WWII.  Management got a black eye over it.
  • Three of the other four super-major energy companies have raised the dividend in 2020.
  • Yet Shell's 1Q 2020 cash flow looks as good or better than any of the others sans Chevron.  Debt metrics exceed management objectives, but are in-line with Exxon and Total.
  • Apparently, Shell management envisions a different future than its peers, and the Street is giving it the fish eye.
  • Time will prove whether management got it right, or may have been just too cautious.

On Thursday, April 30, Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) (RDS.B) announced something that it hasn't done in 75 years: a dividend cut. The board of directors knocked back the quarterly dividend by 66 percent. Many investors were surprised at the move. I was one of them.

The cut was particularly tough. At the bottom of the 2015-16 energy commodity crunch, CEO Ben van Beurden promised to hold the line on the payout for at least 18 months; back then, Shell made good on the promise.

In contrast, late January 2020 saw van Beurden offer some remarks that came back to haunt him and the company. During an interview with Bloomberg News, he was adamant that payouts to shareholders are sacrosanct.

“I think lowering the dividend is not a good lever to pull if you want to be a world-class investment case, so we’re not going to do that,” he said. “And it’s also not needed, to be perfectly honest.”

Just three months later, the plain-speaking Dutchman had the rug pulled out from under him.

The board of directors (of which he's a member) declared the 1Q 2020 dividend will be cut from 94 cents per ADR to 32 cents. Management labeled the new dividend a “reset.”

Investors reacted negatively.

Shell Was An Outlier

To date, RDS was the only super-major energy company to cut a 2020 dividend. The others maintained or even raised payouts.

The move magnified management scrutiny.

So let's take a walk down the Street with the super-major energy companies and see how these stack up. We'll recap our findings and attempt to draw some conclusions at the end of this article.

A Few Words On Methodology And Comparisons

For each company, we'll recap some dividend history. Next, we will tally 1Q 2020 cash flow, free cash flow, and net cash after paying the

This article was written by

14.28K Followers
Individual investor focused upon a limited number of diversified stocks. Seeks stocks selling below fair value estimates; favors dividend growth and/or income. Advocates fundamental investment analysis, supplemented by the technical charts. Options strategies primarily employed to generate additional income or hedge risk. If interested, you may find out more about my investment philosophy in the I.S.S. (Investment Strategy Statement) found in my listing of published articles or via this link: Investment Strategy Statement - Ray Merola | Seeking Alpha

Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long RDS.A. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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