Utilities Dashboard - June Edition

Jun. 26, 2020 7:56 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 2 Comments

Summary

  • A dashboard in utilities with metrics of value, quality and momentum.
  • Value and quality scores relative to historical averages.
  • The best and the worst in value, quality and momentum.
  • This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Quantitative Risk & Value. Get started today »

This article series has released every month since 2015 a dashboard with aggregate industry metrics in utilities (most popular ETFs in this sector: XLU, VPU, FUTY, IDU). It has been reshuffled this month to calculate more comprehensive Value and Quality Scores.

Shortcut

If you are used to this dashboard series or if you are short of time, you can skip the first paragraphs (metrics definition and table) and go to the charts. However, reading everything once is necessary if you want to use the metrics for stock-picking purposes.

Base Metrics

We calculate the median value of five fundamental ratios for each industry: Earnings Yield ("EY"), Sales Yield ("SY"), Free Cash Flow Yield ("FY"), Return on Equity ("ROE"), and Gross Margin ("GM"). Our calculation universe includes large companies in the U.S. stock market. The five base metrics are calculated on trailing 12 months. For all of them, higher is better and negative is bad. EY, SY and FY are medians of the inverse of Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash Flow. They are better for statistical studies than price-to-something ratios, which are unusable or non-available when "something" is close to zero or negative. For example, companies with no or negative earnings can be taken into account.

We use medians rather than averages because a median splits a set in a good half and a bad half. A capital-weighted average is less useful because it is skewed by extreme values and the largest companies. Our metrics are designed with a stock-picking mindset, not for index investing.

Value and Quality Scores

We calculate historical baselines for all metrics. They are noted respectively EYh, SYh, FYh, ROEh, GMh, and they are calculated as the averages on a look-back period of 11 years. For example, the value of EYh for water in the table below is the 11-year average of the median Earnings Yield

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This article was written by

16.04K Followers

Fred Piard, PhD. is a quantitative analyst and IT professional with over 30 years of experience working in technology. He is the author of three books and has been investing in data-driven systematic strategies since 2010.

Fred runs the investing group Quantitative Risk & Value where he shares a portfolio invested in quality dividend stocks, and companies at the forefront of tech innovation. Fred also supplies market risk indicators, a real estate strategy, a bond strategy, and an income strategy in closed-end funds. Learn more.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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