Entergy: Leverage On Unsustainable Path After Investing $22 Billion For Meager Earnings Growth

Jul. 20, 2020 4:01 AM ETEntergy Corporation (ETR) StockETR6 Comments
DT Analysis
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Summary

  • Many investors favor utility companies such as Entergy for their steady and predictable earnings that should ideally translate into a highly safe dividend.
  • Whilst some investors may be happy assessing dividend coverage with metrics like adjusted income, I believe that free cash flow coverage is superior.
  • Since the end of 2013 they have funded their dividend payments with debt, whilst investing almost $22b via their capital expenditure.
  • Their returns on these investments have unfortunately been nowhere near sufficient to keep pace with their higher debt and thus their very high leverage is on an unsustainable path.
  • Their leverage cannot keep increasing forever and thus something must give one day, until such time as that has eventuated I believe that a neutral rating is appropriate.

Introduction

Utility companies such as Entergy (NYSE:ETR) are often sought after for their relatively steady and predictable earnings that in turn should make their dividend safety high. On the surface this sounds quite reasonable; however, upon digging deeper, years of high capital expenditure have left their leverage taking an unsustainable path that ultimately calls into question the medium to long-term sustainability of their dividends. The type of company does not matter since no company, government or household can see their leverage increasing indefinitely.

Executive Summary and Ratings

Since many readers are likely short on time, the table below provides a very brief executive summary and ratings for the primary criteria that were assessed. The following sections all provide further detailed analysis for those readers who are wishing to dig deeper into their situation.

Entergy ratings

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Ratings Summaries and System

Recently, I have taken actions to make my analysis more comparable between different companies and partnerships by introducing a more standardized rating system. A list of all my equivalent ratings as well as more information regarding my rating system can be found in the following Google Document. Whilst the list is only small at the moment, please check back across time since it will continue growing in tandem as my coverage continues growing.

Ratings System

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Detailed Analysis

Entergy cash flows

Entergy notes 1

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Their historical cash flow performance was primarily included to provide context and thereby frame the subsequent analysis of their financial position. It can be seen that whilst their free cash flow was positive during 2013-2016, this has subsequently changed for the worse since their already sizeable capital expenditure increased even further. Although this is seldom a positive sign for a dividend investment, in theory it could be sustainable if their financial health has not been deteriorating because their investments produce sufficient returns. Since the

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I primarily focus on income investments, as well as deep value and contrarian opportunities.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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