Alteryx: A Bargain In Plain Sight

Aug. 21, 2020 12:26 AM ETAlteryx, Inc. (AYX) StockAYX60 Comments
Integrator
16.11K Followers

Summary

  • Alteryx's stock price has crashed more than 30% from recent highs.
  • Poor earnings guidance is the principal reason for the price collapse.
  • Underlying trends still remain favorable and demand has just been deferred rather than disappeared.
  • Alteryx looks attractive to me at these levels, and I have increased my personal holding.

Alteryx (AYX) recently reported earnings and the market reaction was distinctly unhappy.

While the reported results were generally acceptable, it was the guidance that triggered the violent market reaction, with the stock price promptly selling off more than 35%.

Earnings Snapshot

Alteryx reported relatively good revenue growth in the circumstances. Q2 revenue increased some 17% year over year, noticeably slower than growth in Q1 and the rate of growth that Alteryx had seen throughout most of 2020.

What was of particular concern to investors was the guidance provided by Alteryx, not only for Q3, but through the end of the year. Alteryx indicated that Q3 revenue was likely to be in the range of $111M-115M which suggested a year-on-year revenue increase of a little over 10%.

Further, full-year 2020 revenue guidance was for a range of $460M-465M. This would actually imply Q4 revenue of approximately $145M, suggesting a revenue decline from the $156M that Alteryx delivered in Q4 of 2019.

Investors seemed to take away from Alteryx's result that not only is the situation for Alteryx not improving, but that it may actually be getting worse. I would suggest that the situation looks a lot worse than what it seems. Looking beneath the surface the issues that are plaguing Alteryx appear to me to be short term in nature and largely timing-related.

I wasn’t one to sit and lament the collapsing price and was happy to add to my existing holding recently. Here are the 4 reasons why I bought the dip.

The Data Problem Hasn't Gone Away

The data tsunami problem which Alteryx so effectively solves for hasn’t miraculously gone away because we are in a pandemic and because customer wallets are tight. Data analysts across the Fortune 2000 are still confronted with the problem of how to best prepare

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This article was written by

16.11K Followers
I am an investor who is focused on disruptive businesses that are transforming industries lead by visionary leaders with substantial skin in the game. I have spent nearly 20 years in a formal capacity in various investment banking and corporate advisory roles, having attained my MBA with a concentration in finance. This led me toward a path in Venture Capital and working with entrepreneurs building new technology businesses, and I have had the opportunity to not only invest in a number of amazing privately held businesses, but also play a meaningful role in growing several of these early stage enterprises as well. I am now focused on applying my lens of private market disruption and leveraging secular tail winds to the public markets.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long AYX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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