BioNTech SE: Spectacular Success Still Extremely Undervalued

Summary

• The BioNTech/Pfizer team has announced a 90% plus effective COVID-19 vaccine on 9 November 2020.
• They are probably going to submit a FDA EUA application in the 3rd week of November 2020 and will soon follow that up with a full FDA approval application.
• The BioNTech/Pfizer team has achieved an almost unassailable competitive position with the COVID-19 vaccine.
• The commercial value of the COVID-19 vaccine is modeled for BioNTech specifically in 3 scenarios; Expected, Optimistic and Underperformance.
• The model shows target prices in excess of $600 for BioNTech.

No, I am not a raging bull with foaming mouth and flaring nostrils blowing smoke in full stampede mode, bellowing at the market. To the contrary, the next BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) ADR price target of $600 is a conservative, researched, justified and carefully constructed target price derived and calculated from verifiable credible data and information. Not only will I provide references to substantiate each core data input and calculation, I'll also provide the actual model used to calculate the target price as a download.

Before digging further into the price target, let's take a step back to briefly explore the journey of BioNTech from its ADR listing on the Nasdaq in October 2019 to the dramatic announcement on Monday. 9 November 2020 that "their mRNA-based vaccine candidate, BNT162b2, against SARS-CoV-2 was found to be more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19 in participants without evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, based on the first interim efficacy analysis conducted on November 8, 2020." An external, independent Data Monitoring Committee (DMC) from the Phase 3 clinical study of BNT162b2 evaluated 94 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in trial participants. In short, BioNTech has succeeded in developing a vaccine against COVID-19 which is safe and works incredibly well.

BioNTech's management did not know that a global novel virus pandemic would engulf the globe within a few months when BioNTech was listed in October 2019. They have been collaborating with Pfizer on mRNA-based flu vaccine development at that stage but their mission was "to advance and develop key technologies and bring together the right people to realize our vision for the future of cancer medicine." When in January 2020, Professor Sahin, CEO of BioNTech read an article on the novel coronavirus outbreak in China he saw an opportunity to adapt the mRNA platform to develop a

Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long BNTX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.