Introduction
The Weekly Breakout Forecast continues my doctoral research analysis on MDA breakout selections over more than 5 years. This subset of the different portfolios I regularly analyze has now reached 183 weeks of public selections as part of this ongoing live forward-testing research.
In 2017, the sample size began with 12 stocks, then 8 stocks in 2018, and at members' request into 2020, I now generate 4 selections each week, 2 Dow 30 picks, and a separate article for monthly Growth & Dividend MDA breakout stocks. I now provide more than 6 different ways to beat the S&P 500 since my trading studies were made public.
Remarkably, the frequency streak of 10% gainers within a 4- or 5-day trading week remains at highly statistically significant levels above 80% not counting frequent multiple 10% gainers in a single week. More than 200 stocks have gained over 10% in a 5-day trading week since this MDA testing began in 2017. A frequency comparison chart is at the end of this article.
2020 YTD Breakout Portfolio Returns
The Breakout Picks are high volatility selections for short-term gains, but with no selections below $2/share, under 100k average daily volume, or less than $100 million market cap.
The cumulative average returns YTD are at +253.1% compared to the S&P 500 +10.97% over the same period. The very best case perfectly timed returns at +496.82%, and in the worst case, fixed buy/hold, do nothing, equal-weighted average returns year to date, the worst case returns are +9.29%.
So far YTD in 46 weeks, 114 stocks have gained over 5% in less than a week, 70 stock selections have gained over 10%, 35 stock picks gaining over 15% and one pick as much as +132.6%. The 2020 MDA picks are on track for much higher breakout frequencies and % gains than last year's results as shown
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