It is rare to find stock dislocations that are this severe in public companies. That is certainly true of solid companies with great underlying assets and fundamentals. I am not referring to high-flying IPOs and companies with no earnings that trade at massive valuations. That is speculation and considerable risk. I relish finding great companies at huge discounts that if I am wrong, the stock might be flat to up a little bit without any real injury, and if I am right, they will make an outsized and eye-popping return. With the perspective and belief that we can find such gems perhaps once or twice in a decade, I take a very aggressive stance, an oversized position, and become very vocal about my conviction. After all, when one finds such a massive dislocation, I believe one should "stick the neck out." I have never found it helpful when analysts hover around consensus and do not conduct their own rigorous analysis. The sell-side tends towards group-think and are reticent to make an aggressive call. I prefer analysts are quiet when there is nothing to say, but to speak loudly and clearly when they have conviction. That is how I approach stocks and investing.
When I first wrote about Trinseo back in January 2015, I was criticized and even mocked by some critics for having such an optimistic outlook for the recent IPO from Bain Capital. I stated my conviction that the stock would at least triple in my base case. The stock actually went up more than 6x by 2018. When I again revisited TSE on the long-side in March of this year, I received many messages and email critiques that my numbers and upside expectations were too aggressive. Again now as in 2015, it looks to be conservative. And in this case, much like nearly six years ago, the sell-side
