EnLink Midstream: Distributions Looking Safer In 2021

DT Analysis
11K Followers

Summary

  • EnLink Midstream may have reduced their distributions multiple times during 2020 but thankfully the situation is looking brighter in 2021.
  • Thankfully their capital expenditure reductions have bared fruit with their distribution coverage now sitting at a strong level of almost 150%, which management indicates will continue into 2021.
  • It was surprisingly to see them talk of unit buybacks given their focus on deleveraging and these will have to be monitored going forwards.
  • Thankfully their net debt and leverage has trickled lower, but sadly their liquidity has weakened in tandem but overall, neither should pose a risk to their distributions in 2021.
  • When everything is weighed together, I believe that upgrading my neutral rating to bullish is now appropriate.

Introduction

Whilst the unitholders of many Master Limited Partnerships saw their distributions being reduced during the turmoil of 2020, unitholders of others such as EnLink Midstream (ENLC) were forced to endure two reductions. Even now many months later, their distribution yield is sitting at a very high level of just above 10%. This article provides a follow-up analysis to reassess the safety of their distributions since more than half a year has passed since my previous article.

Executive Summary & Ratings

Since many readers are likely short on time, the table below provides a very brief executive summary and ratings for the primary criteria that was assessed. This Google Document provides a list of all my equivalent ratings as well as more information regarding my rating system. The following section provides a detailed analysis for those readers who are wishing to dig deeper into their situation.

EnLink ratings

Image Source: Author.

*There are significant short and medium-term uncertainties for the broader oil and gas industry, however, in the long-term they will certainly face a decline as the world moves away from fossil fuels.

**Whilst the oil and gas industry to which they service has high economic sensitivity, given the more stable nature of the midstream sub-industry this was deemed to be average.

Detailed Analysis

EnLink Midstream cash flows

EnLink Midstream notes 1

Image Source: Author.

Instead of simply assessing distribution coverage through distributable cash flow, I prefer to utilize free cash flow since it provides the toughest criteria and best captures the true impact to their financial position. The main difference between the two is that the former ignores the capital expenditure that relates to growth projects, which given the very high capital intensity of their industry can create a material difference. Similar to all of my other analyses, I further stress test their distribution coverage by including other relevant miscellaneous cash expenses that outrank

This article was written by

11K Followers
I primarily focus on income investments, as well as deep value and contrarian opportunities.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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