Taking A (Small) Position In Black Hills

Patrick Doyle
7.29K Followers

Summary

  • I think Black Hills Corp. is a compelling investment at the moment for a few reasons. The company remains profitable, and the dividend is very well-covered.
  • At least as importantly, the shares are trading on the low end of their valuation range.
  • I also offer further evidence that put options are great stock alternatives. Unfortunately, the current market doesn't offer sufficient premia, as investors are particularly manic at the moment.

In the months since I wrote my cautious piece on Black Hills Corp. (NYSE:BKH), the shares are down about 9.5% against a gain of 35% for the S&P 500. I thought I’d check in on the name again because I’m on the hunt for value at the moment, and after all, a stock that’s trading at $59 is, by definition, less risky than when it was trading at $66. I’ll try to determine whether the shares are a good buy at the moment by looking at the updated financial history and by looking at the stock as a thing distinct from the underlying business. Since I recommended a short put trade that worked out very well, you’ve gotta just know that I’ll be writing about that, too.

I’ll leap right to the conclusion, dear reader, in case you’ve decided you’ve got better things to do than listen to me blather on about this company. The shares are trading near historically low multiples, and I think the dividend is very well covered. For that reason, I’ll be starting a small position in the company. I won’t buy all upfront as I fear a market correction over the coming months, but I certainly think this is a buy at current price. I’ll go through my reasoning below.

Financial Update

For a discussion of the sustainability of the company’s dividend, please see my earlier article on the name. In case you forgot for some reason, dear readers, I noted that over the longer term, the dividend is dependent upon the company’s ability to raise capital going forward. This is especially the case in 2023 as I think this is even more true now than it was then, as the company has issued even more debt. We should also note that since my article came out, the firm issued another $400 million of 10

This article was written by

7.29K Followers
I'm a quant investment newsletter writer who marries fundamental analysis with the latest research in momentum. Over the past few years, I’ve developed a piece of software that helps me track the level of optimism and pessimism embedded in stock price. I seek to challenge the assumptions embedded in price by profitably exploiting the disconnect between what the market thinks and what is a likely outcome. I invest in those companies that have a greater than average chance of giving us all a surprise in the next few months.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in BKH over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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