Northern Oil And Gas Is Deeply Undervalued

SimOne Trading
830 Followers

Summary

  • The recent Marcellus Shale acquisition is expected to return an average 18% FCF yield on the investment.
  • Northern Gas and Oil has high leverage but management is tackling the problem.
  • The stock is trading at ca. 22% discount to its peers.

Northern Oil and Gas (NYSE:NOG) has recently been in the spotlight after announcing a transformational acquisition in the Marcellus Shale on February 3rd, 2021. After looking at the rationale behind the acquisition, financials, and Company’s business model, I concluded that Northern Oil and Gas is a stock worth investing in. At the current price of $11.25 per share (02/03/2021), NOG can provide an upside of ca. 22% in the long term.

About the Company

Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) is an independent energy company. The Company is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of oil and natural gas properties. Its properties are primarily located in the Bakken and Three Forks formations within the Williston Basin in North Dakota and Montana. The Company’s operations in the Williston Basin include an acreage footprint of approximately 183,000 net mineral acres. The Company’s primary focus is oil exploration and production through non-operated working interests in wells drilled and completed in spacing units that include its acreage. The Company also holds an interest in assets and wells in Lea County, in the Delaware Basin.

Source: Company website

Business model

Throughout the years, Northern Oil and Gas has developed a non-operator business model that brings some benefits including low overhead costs, diversification of risk and the ability to accumulate acreage that other operators do not compete for due to the small working interest exposure. Moreover, a non-operated business model enables management to cherry-pick activity to the best well and be more flexible in timing. However, being a non-operator means that the Company has a lack of control over the drilling program, which is run by the operator. Northern Oil and Gas has been able to balance the benefits and drawbacks of the non-operated business model by gaining exposure to more than 40 different operators and participating in more than 6,500 wells.

This article was written by

830 Followers
Analyzing investment opportunities in EU and US

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

About NOG Stock

SymbolLast Price% Chg
Market Cap
PE
Yield
Rev Growth (YoY)
Short Interest
Prev. Close
Compare to Peers

More on NOG

Related Stocks

SymbolLast Price% Chg
NOG
--