Green Plains Partners: Solid Progress But The Key Risk Remains For Now

DT Analysis
11K Followers

Summary

  • Green Plains Partners managed to navigate the turmoil of 2020 with little impact to their financial performance.
  • They are still nevertheless walking a proverbial tight rope with the repayment terms of their credit facility choking their finances.
  • Their upcoming $27m asset sale will certainly help buy them more breathing room, but nevertheless they will require either further asset sales or refinancing before maturity in December 2021.
  • Thankfully, their leverage has now fallen into the low territory and thus will help smooth out the refinancing process.
  • Until such time as their liquidity credit facility is actually refinanced, I will be continuing my neutral rating.

Introduction

When last reviewing the small and largely unknown ethanol-focused partnership, Green Plains Partners (GPP), it was found that they were walking a proverbial tight rope with their choking credit facility repayment terms, as my previous article explained. This article provides a follow-up analysis that reviews their progress fighting out of this situation along with their fourth quarter of 2020 results and their upcoming asset sale.

Executive Summary & Ratings

Since many readers are likely short on time, the table below provides a very brief executive summary and ratings for the primary criteria that was assessed. This Google Document provides a list of all my equivalent ratings as well as more information regarding my rating system. The following section provides a detailed analysis for those readers who are wishing to dig deeper into their situation.

Green Plains Partners ratings

Image Source: Author.

Detailed Analysis

Green Plains Partners cash flows

Green Plains Partners notes 1

Image Source: Author.

Instead of simply assessing distribution coverage through distributable cash flow, I prefer to utilize free cash flow since it provides the toughest criteria and best captures the true impact on their financial position. The main difference between the two is that the former ignores the capital expenditure that relates to growth projects, which given the very high capital intensity of their industry can create a material difference.

When originally reviewing their cash flow performance the two primary takeaways were that their distribution coverage was now very strong following their massive distribution reduction in early 2020 but at the same time, their ability to reinstate these previous distributions is very limited. If interested in further details regarding these aspects, please refer to my previously linked article since nothing material has changed since publication.

Now turning to their recent performance and once again it appears that despite the turmoil across the economy due to the Covid-19 economic downturn, 2020 ended

This article was written by

11K Followers
I primarily focus on income investments, as well as deep value and contrarian opportunities.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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