Wide-Moat Stocks On Sale - The March 2021 Heat Map

Feb. 25, 2021 9:27 PM ET, , , , , , , , , 79 Comments
The FALCON Method
12.96K Followers

Summary

  • Our three-step process focuses on wide-moat stocks (as per Morningstar’s rating).
  • We are only interested in those targets that are attractively valued in historical comparison.
  • We share the heat map of the most investable candidates that may be worth your time for further analysis.

Step One: Wide-moat stocks with 5-star and 4-star ratings

Historical evidence says that while quality alone is a poor indicator of outperformance, when combined with a decent valuation filter, Morningstar's moat rating proves to be more than useful. Based on the available data, stocks with a wide-moat rating that also fit into the 4- or 5-star category deserve to be the subject of further analysis. See the detailed explanation and the underlying evidence of our first step in this article.

We focus on those companies that are covered by a Morningstar analyst as assigning a wide-moat rating without thorough analysis is a questionable practice in our opinion. As of February 25, there were 177 wide-moat stocks meeting our criteria. (Up from 176 a month ago, as Workday, Inc. (WDAY) was added.)

Only 1.7% (3 stocks) of this wide-moat group earned a 5-star (most attractive) valuation rating. Here are they:

Company Name Ticker
Bayer AG OTCPK:BAYRY
British American Tobacco PLC BTI
Imperial Brands PLC OTCQX:IMBBY

We believe that the percentage of 5-star-rated wide-moat stocks is a good indicator of market sentiment. When this percentage is high, even the best companies are on sale. When the percentage is extremely low, market conditions may warrant caution. (Please note that this is not an indicator for market timing!).

Source: Data from Morningstar

As these best of breed companies may be worth a closer look even when they are just slightly cheaper than their fair value but are not in the bargain bin, we also list the 4-star-rated wide-moat stocks as of February 25:

Company Name Ticker
Airbus SE OTCPK:EADSY
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd BABA
Alphabet Inc. GOOGL
Altria Group Inc. MO
Amazon.com Inc. AMZN
Ambev SA ABEV
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV BUD
AstraZeneca

This article was written by

12.96K Followers
The FALCON Method encompasses an evidence-based stock selection process that serves the construction of a buy and hold portfolio with both an income and total return focus. All the elements of the FALCON Method are proven to support outperformance and combining them further increases the odds of achieving outstanding results. We conduct our research in the shareholder-value-focused EVA (Economic Value Added) framework, and provide exclusive content to our Seeking Alpha readers with a pronounced focus on quality compounders or "EVA Monsters".

Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long LMT MO PM KO PEP ENB. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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