EnLink: 2021 Guidance Shows Weakness Ahead

Aaron Goldberg
747 Followers

Summary

  • As expected, EnLink outperformed in Q4, riding seasonal tailwinds to reach a net EBITDA of $1039MM for the year.
  • Although the 2021 guidance disappointed with projects and recovery being delayed into 2022, the overall value of EnLink fundamentally hasn't changed.
  • The discount in EnLink’s unit price offers shareholders a large margin of safety, and for those with capital to deploy, the pullback presents a nice buying opportunity.

As expected, EnLink (ENLC) outperformed in Q4, riding seasonal tailwinds to reach a net EBITDA of $1039MM for the year which exceeding the top of their revised guidance by $14MM. Although the 2021 guidance disappointed with projects and recovery being delayed into 2022, the overall value of EnLink fundamentally hasn’t changed. At these depressed values, EnLink remains a compelling buy for long-term investors willing to ride out the short-term weakness. For swing traders, they can use the indecisiveness to trade the range.

EnLink came in at $1039MM in net EBITA for the year, exceeding the top end of the revised guidance by $14MM – revised because the guidance at the beginning of 2020 was pegged at $1070-$1130MM in net EBITDA before being revised lower after COVID broke out in Q1 of 2020 to $950-$1025MM. This revised guidance turned out to be too dour.

Segment Profit

In “EnLink to outperform in Q4”, we spoke almost entirely about Gross Operating Margin (GOM), which excludes operating costs and G&A expenses. (Note: EnLink changed the term "gross operating margin" to "adjusted gross margin" but for the purposes of this article and to remain consistent, we will continue to use GOM). We kept the discussion at this level to gauge their performance without the substantial benefit of operating cost and G&A savings that EnLink achieved in 2020. We’ll review things once more at the GOM level later but first, let’s look at their Segment Profit.

EnLink defines GOM as revenues less cost of sales and defines Segment Profit as GOM minus operating costs. It is important to note that Segment Profit still includes profits attributable to joint ventures (which show up almost exclusively in the Permian segment) and it still excludes things like G&A expenses.

Like GOM it can also show important trends in the

This article was written by

747 Followers
I have over 30 years of personal investing experience. My articles cover mostly small to mid sized midstream companies and larger topics like the energy transition and macro questions, like when will we hit peak shale? I consider myself a value investor and recommend companies that produce high returns over a 3-8 year time horizon. As value returns to other sectors, I will broaden my articles to include other names.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long ENLC. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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