Diagnosing The Future Of Healthcare

Apr. 01, 2021 12:33 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 3 Comments
William Blair
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Summary

  • In our opinion, telehealth will remain the leading segment of the internet healthcare market as the market shifts away from in-person medical visits.
  • According to Apple CEO Tim Cook, “I believe, if you zoom out into the future, and you look back, and you ask the question, ‘What was Apple’s great contribution to mankind?’ it will be about health.”.
  • Hospital infrastructure, based on our estimates, had a compound annual growth rate of 6% from 2015 to 2019, and we estimate that it is currently a $120 billion market.
  • But growth will likely accelerate post-COVID as healthcare systems are forced to revisit their pandemic preparedness, giving it an estimated TAM of $220 billion.

For some time now I have been discussing a few key areas in which the healthcare landscape could change, including gene therapy and liquid biopsy. Then COVID-19 struck, and we saw the landscape change, with growth accelerating in many other areas.

Hospitals are increasing ICU capacity to address pandemic preparedness, for example, and tech giants are getting even more involved in healthcare.

Let's look at a few key areas, with our estimations of current sales, total addressable market (TAM), and the potential growth opportunity.

Internet Healthcare

Internet healthcare can mean many things: online consultations, online pharmacies, electronic medical records, even using big data to improve medical diagnosis and reduce medical error.

Internet healthcare had a compound annual growth rate of 15% from 2015 to 2019, and we estimate that it is currently a $31 billion market. The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrably accelerated this market, and we project a 24% annual growth rate for the next five years. We also believe that growth is sustainable, and that stands out because this market is in its infancy.

In our opinion, telehealth - when a patient interacts with a medical professional online - will remain the leading segment of the internet healthcare market as the market shifts away from in-person medical visits.

There is also significant potential in China, given that internet healthcare there is uniquely positioned to relieve some of the key bottlenecks in the healthcare system. Unlike many healthcare systems in developed nations such as the United States - where most routine care and diagnosis is performed in a well-established primary care setting - most routine care in China is performed at the hospital. The result of this - at least before the coronavirus pandemic - is overcrowded hospital lobbies and a high level of inefficiency in the delivery of medical care. The growing use of telehealth for diagnosis, together with online pharmacies, drastically alters

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