Sell HYG At Historically Expensive Levels

Summary

  • US high-yield corporate bonds offer a low-risk premium relative to government bonds.
  • Technical indicators also show extreme levels of exuberance, which further reduce the probability of further upside.
  • Despite the potentially favourable macroeconomic backdrop, investors should start reducing exposure to ETFs like HYG and JNK due to an unfavourable risk vs. reward profile in my opinion.

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US high yield corporate bonds offer a very low premium relative to government bonds according to long-term average levels. Moreover, there are clear signs of extreme exuberance from meaningful technical indicators. Investors should therefore consider reducing their exposure

This article was written by

I am a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) with over 6 years of experience in investing. I currently work in the luxury retail sector after spending six years as an investment advisor for ultra-high net worth clients for a renowned international private bank. I am a keen follower of markets and invest my own money in stocks and ETFs via cash markets and option strategies.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long SPY. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

I am long SPY from an asset allocation perspective with an 'underweight' tactical weighing.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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