A Pullback In Equities Is Possible, But Reasons For Optimism Also Remain

Jul. 20, 2021 10:56 PM ETSPY, QQQ, DIA, SH, IWM, TZA, SSO, TNA, VOO, SDS, IVV, SPXU, TQQQ, UPRO, PSQ, SPXL, UWM, RSP, SPXS, SQQQ, QID, DOG, QLD, DXD, UDOW, SDOW, VFINX, URTY, EPS, TWM, SCHX, VV, RWM, DDM, SRTY, VTWO, QQEW, QQQE, FEX, SPLX, EEH, EQL, QQXT, SPUU, IWL, SYE, SPXE, UDPIX, JHML, OTPIX, RYARX, SPXN, HUSV, RYRSX, SPDN, SPXT, SPXV6 Comments

Summary

  • Equities continue to post more gains, as the story of a global economic rebound and more government spending remain the focus.
  • While the second half of the year is likely to be a positive in terms of re-openings and a reduction in Covid-19 cases, there are metrics to suggest caution is warranted.
  • Household allocations to stocks are at peak levels, which often suggests a pullback. Further, commodity prices are starting to retract, which could suggest demand is fading.
  • Geo-political risk has moved to the back-burner, and sits at multi-year lows. Yet with unrest in Afghanistan, a contentious US-China trade relationship, and U.S. mid-term election season just around the corner, investors should monitor these risks.
  • Despite these headwinds, corporate earnings continue to impress, and the consumer story remains a driver of economic activity.
  • This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, CEF/ETF Income Laboratory. Learn More »
End of the World Street in Chile - Patagonia
DieterMeyrl/E+ via Getty Images

Main Thesis / Background

The purpose of this article is to discuss the broader equity market, and my outlook for the next few months. In particular, there are a few warning signs out there, that I think warrant a more cautious stance. Simply, I do not

Please consider the CEF/ETF Income Lab

This article was written by

Dividend Seeker profile picture
8.95K Followers

I am a macro-focused investor with 15 years experience working in Financial Services. My niche is finding under-valued sectors and thematic ideas (metals, gold, crypto) at opportune entry points.

The first half of my career was in New York, working professionally after college (BS - Finance and D1 Men's Tennis). I relocated to North Carolina for graduate school (MBA) and employment. I am fortunate to be able to spend half my time in Charlotte and half in Asheville.

I grew up in a middle-class family where a strong work ethic was mandatory (blame my German/Slovak mother). I went to college with $10,000 to my name and I thought that was all the money in the world. Twenty years later, I co-manage a $2.5 million investment account with my wife. I'm literally living proof that diligent saving and investing can be life changing.

I make a habit of keeping my portfolio up-to-date, which my followers can see here. I take pride in writing about funds, stocks, and sectors that I actually follow and invest in, and I believe my followers appreciate that approach.

Broad market: DIA, VOO, QQQM

Sectors/Non-US: XLE/IXC; VPU/IDU/BUI, FEZ, SCHF, EWC

Alternatives: Bitcoin, IAU (Gold)

Stocks: JPM, MCD, WMT, FLUT

Debt: BGT, Individual Muni issues from NC

I also contribute to the investing group CEF/ETF Income Laboratory where I specialize in macro analysis. Features of CEF/ETF Income Laboratory include: managed income portfolios (targeting safe and reliable ~8% yields) making use of high-yield opportunities in the CEF and ETF fund space. These are geared toward both active and passive investors of all experience levels. The vast majority of holdings are also monthly-payers, for faster compounding and steady income streams. Other features include 24/7 chat, and trade alerts. Learn more.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

Related Stocks

SymbolLast Price% Chg
SPY--
SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust
QQQ--
Invesco QQQ Trust ETF
DIA--
SPDR® Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust
SH--
ProShares Short S&P500 ETF
IWM--
iShares Russell 2000 ETF

Related Analysis