December 2021: Natural Gas Supply-Demand Balance Overview And Forecast

Summary

• In this article, I review EIA consumption and export figures, look at my estimates for October and November, and conclude with my latest forecast for December, January, and February.
• On a 12-month average basis, natural gas exports now equate to around 17.61% of total demand - a new all-time record.
• After declining by 2.93% y-o-y in September, I estimate that total natural gas consumption then dropped by 5.79% y-o-y in October and surged by 9.40% y-o-y in November.
• I currently expect total supply (production + imports) in the contiguous United States to average 106.32 bcf/d over the next three months (December-January-February), +7.63 bcf/d y-o-y.
• The annual storage deficit is currently projected to expand by 25 Bcf by January 14. The storage surplus vs. the five-year average is projected to shrink by 82 Bcf over the same period.
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Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NG1:COM either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.