Taiwan Semiconductor Is Likely Finished

Summary

• TSMC provided more details about its N2 (2nm) schedule, which is going from bad to worse. It is a trainwreck, worse than Intel 10nm.
• TSMC not only conclusively confirmed the delay, but the schedule is five (!) quarters later than I had previously expected.
• TSMC’s process leadership will be finished by 2025 with a full node disadvantage. This will likely remain so for the rest of the decade.
• Intel will be leading Moore’s Law again. Customers may jump ship and flock to Intel Foundry Services. This poses a real threat to TSMC's financials and stock.
• TSMC remains investible in the near- to mid-term, but not the long-term.

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Investment Thesis

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSM) reported an absolutely stunning quarter. And given that there is no in end in sight for TSMC’s massive capex spending (resulting in much higher capacity), combined with its

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