Taiwan Semiconductor Is Likely Finished

Arne Verheyde profile picture
Arne Verheyde


  • TSMC provided more details about its N2 (2nm) schedule, which is going from bad to worse. It is a trainwreck, worse than Intel 10nm.
  • TSMC not only conclusively confirmed the delay, but the schedule is five (!) quarters later than I had previously expected.
  • TSMC’s process leadership will be finished by 2025 with a full node disadvantage. This will likely remain so for the rest of the decade.
  • Intel will be leading Moore’s Law again. Customers may jump ship and flock to Intel Foundry Services. This poses a real threat to TSMC's financials and stock.
  • TSMC remains investible in the near- to mid-term, but not the long-term.

View of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) plant.

BING-JHEN HONG/iStock Editorial via Getty Images

Investment Thesis

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) reported an absolutely stunning quarter. And given that there is no in end in sight for TSMC’s massive capex spending (resulting in much higher capacity), combined with its

TSMC vs. Intel process leadership

Own work

TSMC vs. Intel process leadership

Own work

Intel vs. TSMC process leadership

Own work

This article was written by

Arne Verheyde profile picture
With an engineering background, looking for companies with expertise to be well-positioned for growth and leadership.

Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of INTC either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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