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- 2019 SPY return: +31.22%
- 2020 SPY return: +18.37%
- 2021 SPY return: +28.75%
- 3-yr annualized return: +26%
- 2022 YTD return: -19.98%
Looking at the previous three years S&P 500 (SPY) total returns, the S&P
S&P 500 Earnings: 5.6% EPS Growth,10.4% Revenue Growth Expected For Q2 '22 Vs. Tough Compare From Q2 '21
Summary
- Looking at the previous three years S&P 500 total returns, the S&P 500’s YTD return as of June 30, 2022, doesn’t seem that bad.
- NIKE’s and Micron’s earnings this week (particularly Micron’s commentary) seem to be indicative of a rapidly slowing US economy.
- The quarterly bump in the forward S&P 500 EPS number is strictly from riding up the earnings curve.
- It’s hard to conceive of a current scenario where 2022 full-year estimates for the S&P 500 don’t decline over the next 4–5 weeks.
Brian Gilmartin, is a portfolio manager at Trinity Asset Management, a firm he founded in May, 1995, catering to individual investors and institutions that werent getting the attention and service deserved, from larger firms. Brian started in the business as a fixed-income / credit analyst, with a Chicago broker-dealer, and then worked at Stein Roe & Farnham in Chicago, from 1992 - 1995, before striking out on his own and managing equity and balanced accounts for clients. Brian has a BSBA (Finance) from Xavier University, Cincinnati, Ohio, (1982) and an MBA (Finance) from Loyola University, Chicago, January, 1985. The CFA was awarded in 1994. Brian has been fortunate enough to write for the TheStreet.com from 2000 to 2012, and then the WallStreet AllStars from August 2011, to Spring, 2012. Brian also wrote for Minyanville.com, and has been quoted in numerous publications including the Wall Street Journal.