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Referendum Upside
I believe the iShares MSCI Chile Capped ETF (BATS:ECH) is a buy prior to September 4th. On that day, Chile votes to approve or reject a new constitution. This political risk has
ECH: The Chilean Opportunity
Summary
- The Chilean market is down to 2005 levels on political risk.
- Valuations are at a 40% discount and the currency is at an all-time low. The worst seems to be largely priced in.
- Sept 4th referendum: There is an ever-increasing probability that the new constitution will be rejected.
- This could spark a significant relief rally of 20% to 30%, while downside could be 10%.
- ECH is the broadest instrument to play this event.
Experience is difficult to learn. After 30 plus years of critically analyzing the nuts and bolts of businesses as diverse as airlines, oil, retail, mining to fintech and ecommerce plus the macro, monetary and political drivers. I continue to immensely enjoy learning and applying my experience to unravel, comprehend and benefit from new ideas, technology, innovation and business models. In addition, living through multiple crises, tequila, Asia, dotcom, 9/11, the great recession and the Covid19 pandemia, plus a stint at entrepreneurialism (Export, Factoring and Printing) provides for an extraordinary base of experience to be applied across multiple disciplines.
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