RETL: Too Risky At This Juncture

Summary

  • I have kept my eye on RETL for a while in hopes that the macro-environment would support a bullish take. While it has rebounded off its lows, I can't recommend buying here.
  • Retail may appear oversold to the contrarian investor. But I have a more cautious take. Inflation remains a major problem, as does labor force participation.
  • Energy prices remain elevated, and heating costs are likely to be high during the fall and winter seasons. This means the challenging retail environment will likely stretch into the holiday shopping season.
  • This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, CEF/ETF Income Laboratory. Learn More »

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Main Thesis & Background

The purpose of this article is to evaluate the Direxion Daily Retail Bull 3X Shares ETF (NYSEARCA:RETL) as an investment option at its current price. This fund offers exposure to the S&P Retail Select

Please consider the CEF/ETF Income Lab

This article was written by

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I am a macro-focused investor with 15 years experience working in Financial Services. My niche is finding under-valued sectors and thematic ideas (metals, gold, crypto) at opportune entry points.

The first half of my career was in New York, working professionally after college (BS - Finance and D1 Men's Tennis). I relocated to North Carolina for graduate school (MBA) and employment. I am fortunate to spend half my time in Charlotte and half in Asheville.

I grew up in a middle-class family where a strong work ethic was mandatory (German/Slovak mother). I went to college with $10,000 to my name and I thought that was all the money in the world. Twenty years later, I'm fortunate enough to co-manage a seven-figure investment account with my wife, who is also an astute investor. I'm literally living proof that diligent saving and investing can be life changing.

I make a habit of keeping my portfolio up-to-date, which my followers can see here. I take pride in writing about funds, stocks, and sectors that I actually follow and invest in, and I believe my followers appreciate that approach.

Broad market: DIA, VOO, QQQM, RSP

Sectors/Non-US: XLE/IXC; VPU/IDU/BUI, FEZ, SCHF, EWC

Alternatives: Bitcoin, IAU (Gold)

Stocks: JPM, MCD, WMT, FLUT, MAA

Debt: BGT, Municipal bonds from North Carolina

I also contribute to the investing group CEF/ETF Income Laboratory where I specialize in macro analysis. Features of CEF/ETF Income Laboratory include: managed income portfolios (targeting safe and reliable ~8% yields) making use of high-yield opportunities in the CEF and ETF fund space. These are geared toward both active and passive investors of all experience levels. The vast majority of holdings are also monthly-payers, for faster compounding and steady income streams. Other features include 24/7 chat, and trade alerts. Learn more.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of XRT either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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