A Negative EV Opportunity - Sera Prognostics Has A Chance To Become Standard Of Care In Preterm Birth Risk Screening

Summary

• SERA sells PreTRM®, a CLIA-lab based assay to determine the risk of a woman having a pre-term birth – a birth prior to 37 weeks of gestation.
• After IPO'ing in July 2021 at $16, the Company has since lost over 80% of its value and trades at 50% of its cash and marketable securities.
• PRIME, a post-marketing study, is being run with Elevance Health, who is also an investor. A positive outcome could make PreTRM® the standard of care.
• At their current burn rate, assuming their interim data in mid-2023, SERA should have over $2 per share in cash in July 2023, which reduces the downside risk.

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SERA Prognostics - Overview

Sera Prognostics (SERA, or the Company), a Salt Lake City, Utah diagnostics company trading on the NASDAQ, sells PreTRM®, a test that provides physicians an assessment of the individualized risk of premature delivery in a pregnancy. A determination of high-risk enables physicians to

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SERA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

I am working with Monish Bahl (MHB Capital Advisors) and Lauren Schmidt (Primarius Capital) to generate a selective portfolio of life science companies under our Life Science Opportunity Fund. The fund will target companies that we believe lost value due to the biotech bear market in spite of having great fundamentals, strong balance sheets and a solid value proposition, and will generate substantial upside from catalysts and the biotech market recovery. I drafted this report after the investment idea was vetted through our screening process, including a review by our scientific advisors.