Storm Clouds In China: Luxury Automotive Beware

Nov. 29, 2022 6:42 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 15 Comments
Mike Smitka
545 Followers

Summary

  • Between the normal seasonal upturn and new stimulus policies, auto sales ought to be surging. Instead, October is down from July and below October 2020 levels. Data through November 20.
  • Of more concern to investors, NEVs actually fell in market share, and EV sales declined. The EV venture Weltmeister is in serious trouble.
  • Meanwhile, short-term headwinds include "zero covid" policies, declining real estate prices, and attendant bank and local government fiscal issues.
  • The bottom line: sell Chinese automotive stocks – particularly Tesla, BMW, Mercedes and VW – before the downturn gets fully priced in.

Green Energy Vehicles At 2022 Central China International Auto Show

Getty Images

­Introduction

It wasn't supposed to be like this.

To boost the economy, at the end of March, the Chinese government cut the sales tax for vehicles in half. Assorted local and provincial governments added their own measures, such as a cash-for-clunker

This article was written by

545 Followers
I'm a retired economist. Over the decades I focused on the auto industry and on the Japanese economy. I also taught a course on the Chinese economy for 30+ years. Prior to that I was an international banker and worked in factories. I began visiting automotive suppliers in Japan in 1983 for my PhD, while based at Hitotsubashi University and the University of Tokyo. Since 1994 I've served as a judge for the Automotive News PACE awards, visiting suppliers (under an NDA) for business case and engineering presentations on innovations. Over the years I've visited over 100 suppliers, in Korea, Japan, China and the Philippines, the US/Canada/Mexico, many countries in Europe, and Israel. I'm also on the steering committee of the GERPISA consortium of auto industry researchers, and helped plan their June 2022 global conference in Detroit. I'm the co-author of Smitka and Warrian (2017), A Profile of the Global Auto Industry: Innovation and Dynamics, available on Amazon as an eBook.I first lived in Tokyo in 1975, after graduating from Harvard with a degree in East Asian Studies. My econ PhD is from Yale; the Nobel Laureate Oliver Williamson was my dissertation chair. I've spent 7+ years in Japan, and 2 months or more in China, Korea, Germany and the Philippines. I read, write and speak Japanese, and read German and (a covid project) now read Chinese.My current research interests are technology in the automotive supply chain, and the Chinese industry. I am active in my community, the Treasurer for 2 non-profits and on the Board of a 3rd.My investing is mostly passive, via my university's TIAA retirement plan, supplemented by direct holdings of 20 or so equities.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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