If Howard Marks' Sea Change Memo Is Correct, REITs And High Yield Stocks Look Unattractive

Summary

  • Yesterday, Chairman Powell signaled more rate hikes are required to tame this stubborn spell of inflation. The entire yield curve has moved up, and notably, during FY 2023.
  • On December 13, 2022, Howard Marks penned a compelling piece - Sea Change. His chief argument is the era of cheap money was the driver of the robust equity returns.
  • If rates are higher for longer, then investment grade bonds are safer and more attractive than REITs and High Yield Dividend Stocks. Many of these REITs are highly leveraged.
  • As the cost of both equity and debt has dramatically re-priced, and higher, the attractiveness of REITs and High Yield Dividend Stocks is less attractive.
  • Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Second Wind Capital get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More »
Close-up bond market trading screen with rising yields. Coupons, rates, yields and other informations are displayed.

Torsten Asmus

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This article was written by

Courage & Conviction has been investing for over twenty years and has spent five years working as a buy-side analyst within a $45 billion investment-grade bond department, 3.5 years as an energy analyst, in addition to various other corporate finance roles. He has been a full time investor and author since 2020.

He leads the investing group Second Wind Capital, providing in-depth analysis on under-the-radar smallcap value ideas. He shares his real-money portfolio and does research based on fundamentals, synthesizing industry ecosystems and regularly interviewing management teams. He teaches community members to embrace volatility and exercise patience to drive alpha creation.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of JPM either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

I'm long AMT, JPM, BAC, and O corporate bonds.

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