All-Time Danger

Summary

• 2023 has smashed all previous U.S. large-cap stock market extremes including those of 2021 and 2022.
• Regardless of whether there is a soft landing or not, current valuations especially for the largest U.S. stocks aren't compatible with contracting economic growth.
• In 2024-2025, U.S. stocks are likely to return to their levels of 2013 and perhaps even 2012.
• One of the major risks to the global economy is that the U.S. dollar, which reached its highest point in September 2022 in more than 20 years, is likely to achieve a 40-year zenith within 2 or 3 years.
• If U.S. stocks end up mostly completing historic nadirs in 2025, then real estate might complete its bottoming process in 2025-2027.

DNY59

In 2021, we achieved especially dangerous all-time record unprecedented investor behavior. In the U.S., we had greater net inflows into U.S. equity funds in 2021 than in 2001 through 2020 combined. We also experienced all of the following all-time record extremes from early