Igor Kutyaev
The recovery is very narrow
China's recovery continues to underwhelm. In the chart below, we summarise the activity data released over the last three months. All measures are shown as cumulative year-to-date, year-on-year.
The
China To See Weak Growth And Limited Stimulus
Summary
- China's recovery has been narrowly focused on consumer spending, and in particular on catering. But even that looks like it will moderate in the months ahead.
- The stimulus response so far has been modest, and will probably remain so. Further rate cuts will likely follow which should weaken China's yuan.
- We are revising our GDP forecasts lower and CNY weaker.
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