Ares Capital: Rising Rates Make Up For Activity Slowdown (Rating Upgrade)

Jul. 10, 2023 9:30 AM ETAres Capital (ARCC)ARCC58 Comments
Hunting Alpha
6.6K Followers

Summary

  • The BDC sector is not in the most upbeat shape, but Ares Capital is well positioned.
  • Investment activity is slowing down as evidenced by falling gross funding and gross commitment data along with management commentary indicating a dearth of investment opportunities.
  • But rising rates are a more powerful tailwind for Ares Capital's floating-rate-dominated investment portfolio. Further rate hikes are likely to provide further propulsion, increasing investment yields.
  • The quality of the portfolio is steadily improving as the mix and incidence of the highest investment grade companies increase. An increasing weighted average EBITDA also signals portfolio resiliency.
  • I anticipate increasing net investment income to lead to a jump in NAVs in Q2 FY23, driving upsides in the valuations and stock prices.
Surfer woman riding on the blue ocean

Ares Capital is riding the rising rates

graphixel/E+ via Getty Images

Thesis Review

In my last article on Ares Capital (NASDAQ:ARCC), I held a 'neutral/hold' stance primarily because the BDC sector dynamics were expected to be deteriorating. 3 months later, the stock has generated a total return of +8.74% vs the

This article was written by

6.6K Followers
I aim to provide alpha-generating investment ideas. I am an independent investor managing my family's portfolio, primarily via a Self Managed Super Fund. You can expect my articles to deliver a clearly structured, evidence-based thesis. But first and foremost, I encourage readers to judge me on my performance.I have a generalist approach as I explore, analyze and invest in any sector so long there is perceived alpha potential vs the S&P500. The typical holding period ranges between a few quarters to multiple years.A bit about how I approach research and coverage of a stock:I build and maintain comprehensive spreadsheets showing historical data on the financials, key metric disclosures, data on the guidance and surprise trends vs consensus estimates, time-series values of the valuations vs peers, data on key coincident or leading indicators of performance and other monitorables. In addition to the company's filings, I also keep tabs on relevant industry news and reports plus other people's coverage of the stock. In some cases, such as during times of a CEO change, I will do a deep dive on a key leader's background and his/her past performance record.I very rarely build DCFs and project financials many years out into the future as I don't think it adds much value. Instead, I find it more useful to assess how a company has delivered and the broad outlook on the 5 key drivers of a DCF valuation: revenues, costs and margins, cash flow conversion, capex and investments and the interest rates (which affect the discount rate/opportunity cost of capital).Associated with VishValue Research

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in ARCC over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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