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Thesis
I am bullish on CompX International (NYSE:CIX) with a 'Buy' rating:
- Security product sales are rebounding
- There are green shoots for recovery in the Marine Components segment
- Valuation is not excessive
CompX International: A Solid Company On The Cusp Of A Growth Recovery
Summary
- Security product (lock) sales are rebounding and is expected to continue. Rate cuts are likely to propel real estate construction and renewal activity, which may trigger new lock sales.
- There are green shoots for recovery in the Marine Components segment, supported by the prospect of falling rates leading to more discretionary boat spending, and the rising popularity of wakeboarding.
- Valuation is not excessive as the stock is still trading well below peak levels as we enter a burgeoning upcycle.
- The balance sheet is in excellent condition. Consumer sentiment indicators are an important monitorable to gauge the Marine Components rebound in particular; so far all signs are positive.
I aim to provide alpha-generating investment ideas. I am an independent investor managing my family's portfolio, primarily via a Self Managed Super Fund. You can expect my articles to deliver a clearly structured, evidence-based thesis. But first and foremost, I encourage readers to judge me on my performance.I have a generalist approach as I explore, analyze and invest in any sector so long there is perceived alpha potential vs the S&P500. The typical holding period ranges between a few quarters to multiple years.A bit about how I approach research and coverage of a stock:I build and maintain comprehensive spreadsheets showing historical data on the financials, key metric disclosures, data on the guidance and surprise trends vs consensus estimates, time-series values of the valuations vs peers, data on key coincident or leading indicators of performance and other monitorables. In addition to the company's filings, I also keep tabs on relevant industry news and reports plus other people's coverage of the stock. In some cases, such as during times of a CEO change, I will do a deep dive on a key leader's background and his/her past performance record.I very rarely build DCFs and project financials many years out into the future as I don't think it adds much value. Instead, I find it more useful to assess how a company has delivered and the broad outlook on the 5 key drivers of a DCF valuation: revenues, costs and margins, cash flow conversion, capex and investments and the interest rates (which affect the discount rate/opportunity cost of capital).Associated with VishValue Research
Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in CIX over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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