Lessons From The Past On How To Position Equity Portfolios In A U.S. Presidential Election Year

Summary

• The strongest year, by quite a margin, tends to be the third year in a presidential term.
• In line with the pattern, the third year proved to be the strongest of the term so far, and the second year was the weakest.
• High quality tend to outperform almost the full year on a regular basis with a slightly stronger second and third trimester.
• The presidential cycle suggests positive equity performance could be expected in the last nine months of 2024.

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By Pierre Debru

Since the first edition of the Stock Trader’s Almanac in 1967, the influence of the U.S. presidential cycle on equity markets has been widely discussed. While current geopolitical and economic conditions impact markets more sharply, those