Intel: Capitalize On The Downtrend

Yiannis Zourmpanos
9.89K Followers

Summary

  • Intel stock has dropped 47% over the last three years, presenting a good entry point for long-term investors.
  • Following a 29% pullback, the convergence of technical indicators suggests a strategic opportunity to establish or intensify long positions using DCA, with $31 to $25 being the ideal entry range.
  • Intel's financial performance has been dismal since 2020, with significant revenue, profitability, and EPS declines driven by the end of its Apple partnership, increased competition, and geopolitical headwinds.
  • Despite financial struggles, Intel's focus on AI innovation and internal foundry technology aims to unlock $10 billion in savings by 2025, positioning the company for a strong recovery and growth in the AI chip market.
3D illustration of a CPU over a generic mainboard

adventtr/E+ via Getty Images

Investment Thesis

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) stock has plummeted by about 47% over the last three years. This underwhelming performance saw the stock trail its peers, some of whom registered strong double-digit growth. Despite a 40% drop from its December 2023 high, the current downtrend presents another

Author of Yiazou Capital Research

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I am the founder of Yiazou Capital Research, a stock-market research platform designed to elevate your due diligence process through in-depth analysis of businesses.

I have previously worked for Deloitte and KPMG in external auditing, internal auditing, and consulting.

I am a Chartered Certified Accountant and an ACCA Global member, and I hold BSc and MSc degrees from leading UK business schools.

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This article was written by

9.89K Followers
Hi, I'm Yiannis. Spotting winners before they break out is what I do best.Experience: Previously worked at Deloitte and KPMG in external/internal auditing and consulting. Education: Chartered Certified Accountant, Fellow Member of ACCA Global, with BSc and MSc degrees from U.K. business schools. Investment Style: Spotting high-potential winners before they break out, focusing on asymmetric opportunities (with at least upside potential of 2-3X outweighing the downside risk). By leveraging market inefficiencies and contrarian insights, we seek to maximize long-term compounding while protecting against capital impairment.Risk management is paramount—we seek a strong margin of safety to protect against capital impairment while maximizing long-term compounding. Our 4-5 year investment horizon allows us to ride out volatility, ensuring that patience, discipline, and intelligent capital allocation drive outsized returns over time.Investment Methodology: Identifying High-Conviction Opportunities1️⃣ Leadership & Management Analysis • Proven track record in scaling businesses. • Smart capital allocation and insider ownership. • Consistent revenue growth and credible guidance. 2️⃣ Market Disruption & Competitive Positioning • Strong technology moat and first-mover advantage. • Network effects that drive exponential growth. • Market penetration in high-growth industries. 3️⃣ Financial Health & Risk Management • Sustainable revenue growth with efficient cash flow. • Strong balance sheet and long-term survival runway. • Avoiding excessive dilution and financial weakness. 4️⃣ Valuation & Asymmetric Risk/Reward • Revenue multiples vs. peers and DCF modeling. • Institutional backing and market sentiment analysis. • Ensuring downside protection with massive upside. 5️⃣ Portfolio Construction & Risk Control • Core Positions (50-70%) – High-confidence, stable plays. • Growth Bets (20-40%) – High-risk, high-reward opportunities. • Speculative (5-10%) – Moonshot disruptors with massive potential.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of INTC either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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