Cerevel Therapeutics: Time For A Risk Arbitrage Play?

Pivotal Biotech
392 Followers
(25min)

Summary

  • Cerevel Therapeutics agreed to be acquired by AbbVie on 12/06/23 for $45/s or ~$8.7B.
  • CERE stock closed on Friday, May 31st at $40.74/s. This presents investors with a potential arbitrage play of over 10% on a deal that should close within the next 3–6 months.
  • There are significant risks to consider before making this type of investment.
  • Based on what we know at this point and the historical rates of approval for these types of deals, I believe like many that the deal will close before the end of the year and the full $45/s purchase price will be achieved.

Neuron system disease

koto_feja

Introduction

Cerevel Therapeutics (Nasdaq: CERE) was created as a spinout for Pfizer's (NYSE: PFE) central nervous system pipeline assets. The birthing process involved Perceptive Advisors using its ARYA II SPAC to effectively buy the assets with Bain Capital for $439.5M on

This article was written by

392 Followers
Experience: Former Fund Manager of a Hedge Fund focused on Biotech and Pharmaceutical companies. Over 20 years in the BioPharma Industry, including various roles on the commercial side. Investing Goal: Outperform the XBI each year by identifying and then investing in assets that should change the current standard of care in a particular disease. Portfolio sizing: Typically, high risk/high reward plays will be acquired up to 2 percent positions in my portfolio. More moderate risk/moderate reward positions may accumulate up to 4-5 percent, and then highest convictions may top out ~10 percent. Occasionally, I do buy large and/or mega-caps, but rarely. Risk Management: Options may be used to both augment and protect positions and/or in-lieu of holding actual shares. Active trading is used to continuously improve positions. Timing: I will always seek to provide a time frame for my investment thesis, with updates typically as new data is available. All active holdings will get an update though at least once a quarter. Articles: I love the biotech industry and want to continue to help others to understand its potential and limitations. I am a straight-shooter; therefore, my articles will share my thoughts on an asset and/or disease state as well as spell out my reasons for why I invested in a company or would not. If you are looking for fluffy charts, tables and graphs...they typically can be found on a company's website and/or one of the "Big-House’s" research reports. Please keep in mind that this is Biotech. Most drugs fail in development, and many that are approved do not go on to commercial success. On top of that, there are external forces including regulatory, government and political that can negatively impact even the best investment stories. This is one of the main reasons that I seek Pivotal Biotech data, events, outcomes and trends to improve the likelihood of my investing success. Though successes are more fun to talk about, I will also attempt to deconstruct failures as I too continue to learn from an ever-changing, fast-paced and potentially volatile sector. I strongly encourage anyone reading my articles and certainly anyone investing money to complete their own due diligence.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of CERE either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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