Greenbrier: Before Earnings, Optimism Is Already Priced In

Dair Sansyzbayev
8.92K Followers
(7min)

Summary

  • Stock rallied due to improving earnings revisions and operational efficiencies, but seasonality suggests caution in buying in July.
  • Recent earnings show revenue drop but EPS expansion, with management focusing on operational efficiency.
  • Valuation remains unattractive, with insiders selling and DDM analysis indicating stock is not attractively valued.
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Investment thesis

My previous cautious thesis about Greenbrier (NYSE:GBX) did not age well because the stock delivered return approximately in line with the broader U.S. market since September 2023.

The stock rallied primarily because of the improving earnings revisions record, which

This article was written by

8.92K Followers
I am a highly experienced Chief Financial Officer (CFO) with a strong background in the oilfield and real estate industries. With over a decade of experience in finance, I have led numerous complex due diligence efforts and M&A transactions, both domestically and internationally.In recent years, I have developed a keen interest in equity research and analysis of public companies. This interest has led me to render equity research services for a Dubai-based family office with over $20 million in assets under management (AUM). My expertise in finance allows me to provide valuable insights and recommendations to clients seeking to make informed investment decisions.I pride myself on my ability to analyze financial statements, evaluate market trends, and identify key drivers of growth in different industries. I am passionate about staying up-to-date on the latest developments and trends in the equity research industry, and I am always seeking to enhance my skills and knowledge through continuing education and professional development.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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