spawns/iStock via Getty Images
Listen here or on the go via Apple Podcasts and Spotify
Avi Gilburt, The Market Pinball Wizard, provides technical context around this market rally (1:44). Treasury ETFs, (NASDAQ:TLT) for trade and how the Fed follows the market (4:15). Metals setting up for strong 2nd half of 2024 (8:10). Concerning numbers from large banks (16:15). Sizable decline then larger rally in (DXY); pullback in (EEM) (23:40). Tesla top? (27:30) Raise cash, get out of dividend plays (33:20).
Subscribe to The Market Pinball Wizard
Transcript
Rena Sherbill: Okay, we have Avi Gilburt back on Investing Experts, back talking to us on Seeking Alpha, where we always love to have a great conversation with one of our longest standing, best reviewed, most popular investing groups. Avi Gilburt, it's great to have you back. Thanks for taking the time and thanks for joining us.
Avi Gilburt: I'm really, really glad to be back and love to be back, but please you're getting my head too big.
RS: All right. Let's keep him humble. Avi writes under The Market Pinball Wizard. And honestly, we want to keep you humble, but sometimes it's hard when you have such a successful service and you have so much adulation from people that have been trying to navigate the markets.
And I was there for Avi's presentation in our Investing Summit, exactly a month ago today in New York City. And that was my first time meeting Avi, which was a real treat. And also my first time hearing up close and personal all the unique insights and opportunities that The Market Pinball Wizard and Elliott Wave theory affords your followers.
So piggybacking off of that conversation, I know you've talked to us many times and many people are familiar with your service. But if you can synthesize what you're offering investors kind of in general and then in your service, and then I think we can get into what – how you're looking at the markets?
AG: Yeah. What we really do is we give investors a very good idea as to a larger degree, smaller degree turning points in the markets, where we think markets are going from a targeting standpoint. And it gives you an opportunity to know when to go long in a big way, when to reduce your risk in a big way, or even when to short in a big way. So we give you a lot of market context to tell you where the market generally is at any given time.
RS: So how are you thinking about, how are you looking at, how are you analyzing the markets right now?
AG: Well, I'll tell you, years ago, I shocked people when I said, my long-term target for the S&P 500 was somewhere between 5,350, to 6,000. And I said this when we were still in the 2000s. And at this time, I'm even a little surprised as to how high we've gone in this type of rally.
But to me, this is what we call the completion of what I believe is an ending diagonal. And that's why I feel so strong. These type of structures make people believe the market is completely unstoppable. And that's why we've been seeing what everybody believes now is the market being completely unstoppable.
I think we could still get a bit higher, but I’m very much tailoring back all my risk. I'm suggesting to all my clients to be tailoring back your risk because I think the top we strike on this rally over the coming, I don't know, could be weeks, it could be another month or so, the top we strike could be a very, very, very long-term market top.
RS: And how are you tailoring your risk? What does that look like?
AG: I’m increasing my cash positions, I'm increasing my treasury positions, but I'm also taking the cash that I'm raising. I'm putting it into treasuries and I'm also putting it into several other segments of the market that we see that can still run for the next year or two. And that includes the metal side, and we could talk about that in a minute as well as oil equities where we see some tremendous opportunity.
And for those that trade crypto, also there's tremendous opportunity over the next, me, I don't know how long it's going to take because crypto runs really fast. So – but there's opportunity in crypto as well.
RS: So in terms of the treasuries that you're getting into, would you advise investors look at ETFs? How are you navigating that space?
AG: I’m using – predominantly, I have – when I've been raising, I've been using more like one- to two-year treasuries as well as I've been also utilizing (TLT) for trade. TLT, I believe, goes off the 20-year, I believe, but I've been looking at TLT for more of a trade.
The reason I'm using a one- to two-year treasury is for me, it's only going to be a short period of time because I'm looking for treasuries to rally over the next year. I mean, I'm definitely seeing the setup for it to rally. For example, in TLT, let me just pull up that chart, in TLT, we've had our eye on the, with me, we've had our eye on the 105 to 110 region for some time. And for trade purposes, that's what we've been looking for.
Once we get to that region, I'm probably going to be getting all out of all my TLT and see how the market develops. If the market pulls back correctively from that region, then I'll probably get back in for another rally back up to 120.
So I'm playing TLT and treasuries very carefully, but I don't want to be holding it for a very long time because I believe if we do rally over the next maybe year, maybe even as much as two years in treasuries, that's going to set up a major bond market crash. So I'm limiting the timeframe on the treasuries that I own.
RS: And how does the Fed figure into your thoughts here? Like if there's a rate cut in September, like many people think there might be, how does that affect your thoughts and how does the rate conversation come in here?
AG: Well, oddly enough, if you look at, and I've written many articles about this. Historically, well, first of all, people believe that the Fed sets rates. The Fed sets only very, very, very short-term rates. The Fed sets its discount rates.
When it comes to market rates, the market is really what directs that. And oddly enough, even the Fed's moving on interest rates follows the market. So it's not that the Fed leads the market, the Fed actually follows the market.
So if you want to know what the Fed's going to do, you look at the – what the market's doing. There have been many, many turns we've called in the markets just using, believe it or not, TLT. And when we've seen turns about to happen in TLT and we go long, within a few months, as the rally is taking shape, the Fed starts jabbering about changing rates. So, when you look at the charts, the charts will tell you what the Fed will do. The market forces the Fed's hand.
RS: So what are your thoughts if they do cut rates in September?
AG: It doesn't make a difference to me because the chart has already been pointing up for some time.
So whether the Fed does it, or whether the Fed doesn't do it, and it's up to them. I'm looking at what the market's telling me that rates are going to do. And the market's telling me rates are going to come down at least until we get to the 105 to 110 region on TLT. And then I have – we're going to take it one step at a time.
RS: Okay. So let's get into metals and crypto first before we get into the energy side of things, wherever you want to start. If you want to start with metals, if you want to start with crypto, interested to hear how you're thinking about that, those spaces.
AG: Well, I'm going to reserve crypto because I’m not the crypto expert. Ryan Wilday is our crypto expert.
But I'll just generally say, his perspective is – Bitcoin is easily going to exceed 100 on the next rally. So – but I suggest you have to sit down with him. He'll give you some really great information on crypto, Ethereum, all the other coins. He knows a lot more about cryptos than I'll do. So I'll just go into the metals.
As of right now, the metals to me are setting up for what it seems to be a very, very strong second half of 2024. I'm looking for this pullback that we're actually in right now. Once this pullback runs its course, I think we're going to see a very, very strong rally across the complex.
That includes the mining index because people have been very, very sad, shall I say, because the miners have been lagging, but I think – we're – and silver as well. But I think the setup that we're getting right now is you're going to see silver and the miners probably lead. Doesn't mean gold is going to be a slouch either, but I think gold will probably lag the other two.
For example, the rally that we saw in gold (GLD) from, what is it, February until mid-March, I'm sorry, mid-April, it was basically straight up. That's what I'm expecting to see once this – once the next pullback completes in the complex as a whole.
So over the next week or two, we're probably going to complete maybe three, I don't know how long it's going to take, but we're going to complete a pullback in the metals market. And that's going to set up a, what I'm seeing is going to be a very, very strong rally, so strong that there is potential for silver (SLV) to see the same type of rally that we saw around 2010, where it just went parabolic.
So that type of rally is being set up in the silver market right now. So I'm very, very positive of the metals market as we look towards the second half of this year.
RS: Which, by the way, is something that you've been talking about for the past year and we've seen it come true thus far. So it's an interesting thing to continue to look at. In terms of the miners that you're referencing, are those the major miners? Are those the junior miners? Who are you looking at specifically?
AG: Well, I'm looking at everything. We have a mining service, believe it or not, where our analysts track all these different miners, I mean, they’re tracking hundreds of miners. But certain miners are going to do better than others, of course. And I'm going to give you an example.
The largest – one of the largest miners is (NYSE:NEM), Newmont Mining. And Newmont Mining, I think we actually rolled out a mining service back in September of 2015. And we started suggesting to our clients, it's time to load up in the miners.
We bought Newmont Mining for about $15 a share, I believe. And as the rally developed into 2016, 2017, I set a long-term target for ourselves. And that target was in the 85 – 82 to 85 region on NEM.
So back in April of 2022, NEM rallied right into our target zone. And I told all my clients, guys, I'm getting rid of probably 90% to 95% of my NEM shares. I'm just basically cashing out. It was a beautiful run. We got to my target. I'm out.
NEM topped, I'll tell you exactly where it topped, at $86.37 right then and there in that month. And then it proceeded to drop down by more than 50% down to the 30 region where it bottomed in the end of February of this year. And, in fact, we literally caught that bottom to the day. And I said, the next rally that I'm expecting off of that low, I said, I do not believe we're going to be seeing major new highs in NEM.
I think Newmont Mining is giving us a very large corrective rally. Now, can it get back to the 67, 68 to maybe even as high as 85 again? Sure. That's actually what I'm expecting.
But I'm not expecting this to be rallying off to major new highs like a whole bunch of others. So there are going to be some companies that are going to lag and some companies that are going to lead.
So NEM is not one of those. I own it now again. I didn't buy as much as I had before, but NEM, Newmont Mining is definitely one of those where you could probably get close to a double in it from here, at least 50% from here. But I still think there are better opportunities in the mining index.
But for now, I would expect a small pullback in Newmont before we're ready to really explode. The explosion comes in, I think, I've got a 51.65 trigger on Newmont Mining. Once we're able to exceed that, I think, you're probably going to see it explode higher.
RS: And what are your thoughts for the average retail investor in terms of navigating those spaces with ETFs as opposed to getting into individual stocks like Newmont?
AG: It really depends. I mean, some people are scared of (GDX) because of what happened in 2020. But for the average investor, I would assume as long as we're in a bull phase, I would assume the GDX should be more than adequate.
The only other drawback with the GDX is Newmont is such a large part of the GDX relatively. I think it's the largest holding in the GDX, it could act as a little bit of a weight relative to some of those other stocks that could soar compared to the GDX – sorry, compared to the NEM. So GDX could have a little bit of a laggard attached to it because of Newmont mining.
RS: Very good. And let's get into energy a little bit. That's been a sector that a lot of analysts have liked this past year specifically and a bit contrarian in some cases, hearkening back to the oil space. So how are you thinking about the sector? What are you looking at? What are the charts saying?
AG: Well, I will tell you, again, I'm not the expert on the oil equities. But our Stock Waves analysts have been putting out a whole host of stocks that look absolutely fabulous and about, or have either started their run or about to start their run in the oil equity part of the segment of the market. And that's definitely one of the areas where we're very high on as we look out for the next year or two.
RS: And how are you thinking about kind of the space in general? What are the charts saying? And how are you encouraging investors to think about things as the year continues to develop?
AG: Well, we believe that in, at this point in time, all pullbacks are buying opportunities in oil equities. And like I said, I'm not the expert on all the different equities. They put out charts for maybe 20, 30, 40 different oil equities that look really, really nice right now, and they're all throwing off some nice dividends.
So it really is a phenomenal opportunity that we're seeing over the next year or so in oil equities. The specific ones I'm not necessarily going to get into, our Stock Waves guys handle that, but oil equities in general is something we're high on.
RS: Got it. And in terms of the ETFs, anything to say there?
AG: I mean, we're really much more confident about the equities individually because some – like with the miners, some are better than others, and some you'll have better dividend plays than others. So I probably would be focusing more on the individuals rather than the general market as a whole.
RS: Got it. And another sector that you've written about under your profile, Avi Gilburt, and also that you've talked to us about for the past couple of conversations has been the financial space and how you're concerned about the banks. What are you seeing there? What are you – how are you thinking about things?
AG: Well, we actually have an article coming out tomorrow regarding, I believe, it's Citibank (C) and JPMorgan (JPM) about how – those are the two largest credit card issuers. And the numbers that we're seeing on that side of the market is just – it's – we're starting to approach levels of the great financial crisis in some of those balance sheets.
Now, mind you, that is only one segment of these large banks, but I'm going to take a step back and remind everybody that back in 2007, there was one major issue that took the banking sector down in a big way, which caused the great financial crisis and the crash of 2008. At this point in time, there are four or five large issues that are sitting on banks' balance sheets.
So whereas people believe that the banks have been handled. And I know many years ago, Janet Yellen said that there will be no more financial crises in our time. Maybe she thought she could say that because she was older at that point, and she may not live to the point where she'll see it again. But I’m telling you, for the most people who hear my voice, there will likely be another major financial crisis in our time.
RS: Do you have a sense of the timing on that? Do you have a sense of, like, when things are going to really break down there?
AG: I say I’m an analyst, I'm not a prophet. So I wish I could look into my crystal ball and give you the exact date. I will tell you this. What normally happens is when the stock market finishes its main rally that we're tracking now and we start moving into what I believe is going to be a bear market, this will likely become one of the catalysts that will cause downside movements in the market.
So right now, no. But right now, I would say, now is the time to be finding safe banks and be identifying banks that you want to hold your money rather than some of these larger banks that really the balance sheets look like crap when you take it apart.
But will it start over the next year or so? I think we've already started seeing the cracks in it. We started writing about this about two years ago, warning people that things aren't looking so kosher. And then right before SVB (OTC:SIVBQ) went under, we put out an article outlining the exact reasons as to why SVB went under before it went under.
So, we're starting to see the cracks in a lot of the banks already. We're starting to see we had SVB, we had Signature (OTC:SBNY), we had New York Community Bank (NYCB). This really is only the tip of the iceberg. This is only the tip of the iceberg.
And on the larger bank side, I think Citibank will probably – Citibank or Capital One (COF) will probably be the first ones that you're going to see the biggest cracks from before you'll see it in the others. But I think those two are the ones you want to keep your eyes on because those are the two that scare me the most, at least, initially.
RS: In terms of earnings that recently came out, were there things that bolstered your case in terms of how you're thinking about things? Were there things that came out in the earnings that made you pause in terms of your concern? How much did you pay attention to recent earnings and what did they do to you?
AG: My banking analysts wrote part of the article that we have coming out tomorrow regarding JPMorgan and Citibank when he looked at their credit card charge-offs. So yes, there are definitely concerning things we are seeing as the earnings get reported. There are a lot of concerning things and they continue to get more concerning as we go through each quarter.
So, like I said, tomorrow is Friday, yeah. Tomorrow, people should see an article we have coming out on Citibank and JPMorgan, and we were focusing predominantly on the credit card segment of their business.
So people can look at that. But yes, we're seeing many and we've highlighted a number of the factors that we're seeing as the earnings come out over the last year in our public articles regarding banks.
RS: Is that an important, I guess, metric or factor to note for investors in terms of looking at the credit card section of things for these big banks?
AG: Oh, that is just one of the segments that we see an issue with. Most banks are underwater on their asset holdings such as treasuries or commercial real estate. I mean, there are, like I said, there are four or five issues that are major issues that are sitting on banks' balance sheets right now.
Like people can feel free to read the articles. We've written dozens of articles about all these issues over the last year or two on Seeking Alpha and people more than happy – more than go look at that. But there are a number of issues sitting on these balance sheets and they just continue to get worse.
RS: And if you're looking at a financial institution that's navigating this time well, what are some things that investors can look at to enforce their positive take or to see if there is a positive take in a stock or a company or a sector even? What are some things that they should be looking for that should help confirm their positivity on the stock?
AG: Well, when you're looking at financials, like I said, we've highlighted four or five major issues. So if you come across a financial institution and you're looking through their books and they don't have these issues on their books, then that is a good place to start. These are our red flags.
Does it mean that every time we come across a bank and we don't see these red flags that we believe that is a bank that we feel is safe? No, but this is a place to start. We've actually put out an entire methodology that people can utilize on SaferBankingResearch.com if people want to go see it. But we put out an entire methodology of our due diligence as to how we look at banks.
So, even though, like I said, you have these four or five issues, these are red flag issues, but you still have to go beyond those just simple red flags. Interestingly, it took us a long time. I mean, we did probably a solid year of work just to identify the top 10, 15 banks in the country that we feel are some of the safest in this country.
It took us a long time because even though we would look at a bank and we'd have the red flags come up and then we'd finally find banks that don't have the red flags come up, and then we go deeper into their balance sheets, and still there were other issues that came up, it took us a long time to find banking financial statements that really were, I'm not going to say pristine, but as pristine as you're going to get in this – in that sector.
RS: So what other things are you paying attention to it in the market or how would you encourage investors to be thinking about things? What else would you point to?
AG: Well, for those that are in the FX world, we're looking for a sizable decline starting in the second half of 2024. In the (DXY) of all things, we're looking for a sizable decline in the dollar. I'm actually looking for the DXY to get back down into the low- to mid-90s before that decline completes.
That's a sizable move because right now, we're hovering around 104. But once that decline completes, I think, I'm looking for a multi-year rally and it could even be a decade long rally in the DXY after the next decline completes.
So for those that trade FX or those that need to understand what the pairs are doing, I'll tell you right now, the DXY is about to see a sizable decline starting in the second half of this year, but only to be followed by an even much larger rally as we look out over the next decade potentially.
Another place I'm looking at is the emerging markets. A funny thing is, even though I see the S&P go into what could be a very, very long-term bear market, I see the potential for emerging markets to be outperforming the S&P 500.
For example, when the S&P 500 is only going to get a corrective rally not to new highs, emerging markets are setting up for during those periods that they can easily well exceed the S&P 500 and go to new highs in the emerging markets. And what I'm specifically talking about is the ETF, (EEM) is what I'm looking at.
So I'm looking for more of a pullback in the EEM. But if I get the type of pullback that I want to see, then I'm probably going to be taking some of the cash that I have free and putting it into the EEM for a rally.
RS: And when you're talking about the currency and EEM, is this strictly chart-based? Are there any fundamental factors here or is this strictly chart?
AG: Strictly chart-based. When I deal with larger broad markets, I usually will not pay much mind to the fundamentals. And that's because the fundamentals usually coincide with the movements in the markets only after the markets make their move.
And I think when I did my presentation, I presented one of our larger hedge fund managers that commented that it's amazing how we come up with a contrarian play and then maybe three, four months later, he'll start seeing it in the fundamentals.
So oftentimes, sentiment will lead the fundamentals by quite some time. For example, when the market is crashing in 2020, and I said to all my clients, guys, 2,200, I'm a big buyer there because I'm looking to go over 4,000 from there.
Now, if you look at the fundamentals of the market at the time, well, you had record unemployment, you had economic shutdowns all over the country and all over the world, who the hell could have foreseen the potential that the market is going to go screaming higher like that?
Well, that's where sentiment leads the market. Sentiment will lead the fundamentals on the larger degree scale. But as I say, when you're looking at small individual stocks, you're not going to have mass sentiment within those stock purchases and sales. You really have to understand the fundamentals of those individual companies more so than any large caps.
RS: Anything - just out of curiosity, and I know that the Stock Wave's team has written a bit about Tesla (TSLA) recently. Any thoughts on the EV space?
AG: Well, I'll give you a quick comment about Tesla. I don't follow the EV space as a whole, but it's interesting. I was a big buyer. I went overweight Tesla when it went below 150, not too long ago. And I've sold – right now, I'm at underweight and I want to see how Tesla handles the current region.
If Tesla should get a pullback back down to the low 20s from here, I'll probably go back in to look for some buys. If Tesla goes straight up into the 290, the 290 region, then I'm probably going to sell what I have and then see how it handles the region from 290 to about 335 is a major resistance region for me.
I want to see how it handles that resistance region before I'm willing to get back in. That could be a major top in Tesla.
RS: I'm curious, were there any questions that you got at the Investing Summit last month that made you think things through in a different way or maybe what, or if that's – if that wasn't the case, was there a salient question that you received or a comment that you'd care to share with our audience that may do more to further how you strategize looking at the markets?
AG: Well, I'll be honest with you. I have – this may not come out the right way, but I'm just going to say this. I've been doing this for a long time and I have done more presentations than I can count. And yeah, I always leave a lot of time for questions. I wish I had more time for questions when we did the summit.
But the questions usually run the same across the board. People will apply what they believe to be what drives the market and then fashion a question from that. And what usually happens is I'll have to turn the tables on their question to show them why the underlying question is coming from the wrong perspective. That's oftentimes the type of questions I deal with and the type of responses that I give in these questions.
The question is, what's the driver? So, when somebody assumes a driver is some exogenous factor and I try to explain to them that there are many studies that show us that exogenous factors do not have the same type of impact upon markets that people truly believe they do. And then I give them examples.
I try to get people to think more in an objective framework about markets and look at market history, not assume what they believe, but look at what the facts of market history tell you about what happens when X happens and you're expecting Y to happen as a result of that.
The market does not work in such a mechanical fashion. The best example I gave, I think, at the summit was, look what happened in October of 2022. Everybody said that we're at 3,500 and everybody said, if we got a worse-than-expected CPI report, we're going down another 5%. I told my clients the night before we hit that bottom, I said, I'm looking for one more spike down and then for strong reversal.
Well, I didn't care what the CPI report said, but the CPI report, even though it came out worse-than-expected, and everybody thought we were going to go down 5%, the CPI report came out worse-than-expected and triggered a rally in the market. We rallied 6% off the intraday low that day alone.
So, people have to start looking at what do the facts of market history tell you rather than what do I assume will happen based upon X?
RS: That makes me think a lot about, we see so much analysis in an election year, especially this election, which is driving a lot of opinions. And it seems that there's a lot of guesses or wannabe prophets and not necessarily staying true to the facts. How do you encourage investors to be agnostic through an election year, through all these things?
AG: It's so funny. I remember back in 2016, when everybody thought that if Hillary won, market's going to rally like crazy. If Trump won, the market's going to crash. Well, we kept pounding the table from early 2016, even before we went into the elections, from early 2016, we were calling for a bottom in the market around 1,800 and we were looking for the market to rally to minimum 2,600 that year. And we said, we didn't care who was elected.
And at the end of the day, like I say, people believe what they want to believe, but oftentimes, it really doesn't make any difference to the market. I'll give you a funny quote from Alan Greenspan. And this is something Alan Greenspan actually said, “it hardly makes any difference who will be the next President. The world is governed by market forces.” He nailed it. He nailed it. That's exactly the truth.
People think this is so important to the market. That is so important to the market. And you know what? Once you get past that event, they don't care anymore. It really wasn't that important at the end of the day.
Or sometimes it could be exactly the opposite of what they expected at the end of the day, like with October 2022. So, as they say, opinions are like armpits and I'm trying to clean it up a little bit. Opinions are like armpits. Everybody has one and they all smell.
RS: Appreciate it. That's a nice twist on that one.
Avi, what else would you share with investors right now? What else do you think would help them understand things?
AG: Well, like I said, I think it's a time where people should start considering, especially those that are very close to retirement, considering raising cash. And I know everybody love – everybody on Seeking Alpha loves those dividend plays, but I'm waiting for the market to give me that first big decline to signal we have begun the bear market.
And then I'm going to be instructing all my clients on the next corrective rally thereafter, it's time to even get out of the dividend plays because that next rally thereafter is going to set up a major market crash.
Before that happens, I'm going to suggest to people to get out of dividend plays. Why? Because I know people love those dividend plays and say, well, you know what, the market always comes back and they say dividend plays did well and through The Great Depression and The Great Recession. But we're dealing with a different environment that we're heading into.
My expectation is we're probably going to be looking at a very prolonged bear market, could be 10, could be 20 years long. During such a malaise of economic activity, dividends will be cut. In my opinion, I have no question in my mind, dividends will be cut during those periods. Some of those companies may be even going out of business.
So, for the dividend players out there, not only are you going to have to stomach a major capital depreciation in your asset value, you're also going to have to stomach cuts in dividends. So from the way I'm looking at it and the way I'm telling my clients, once we get that first signal that the market is heading into that long-term bear market, the next major rally, corrective rally thereafter, I'm going to say, it's time to get out of dividend plays.
We can get back into dividend plays once the next crash completes. And we're going to have multiple crashes during that long-term bear market. It won't be just one. There'll be multiple crashes.
So, it's not going to be one simple one and done like we had in The Great Depression, which is why The Great Depression, the stock market crash from ‘29 to ‘32, lasted three years, took 80% off the market. That's not a long time in the larger span of the lifetime of the market.
But if you're looking at a 20- or 30-year period of time, because what Elliot taught us is the theory of alternation. If a Wave 2, which was the ‘29 crash, takes a very, very short amount of time, the Wave 4, which is the next bear market that I'm expecting, which is of the same degree as that ‘29 crash, will take much, much longer. It'll be completely different in nature.
So that's why I'm expecting a very prolonged market, a bear market. And I think dividend players may wind up being very hurt by that type of timeframe. I remember I wrote a number of years ago, I mean three years ago, I wrote an article saying, I feel bad for people who are approaching retirement, especially if they're not realizing what's coming because those people probably be the ones that are most hurt.
RS: Would you – I know you're not a prophet, but would you say that the dividend cuts are going to be one of the first prongs of the crash?
AG: No, no, no, no. The dividend cuts will probably come. Remember, you're first going to have something, in my opinion, you're first going to have something that's going to feel like a mini crash.
I think we'll go from whatever high we strike in the S&P 500 approaching 6,000, I think, we'll probably go from there down to about 3500 to 3800 in a rather rapid fashion. Is it going to be an outright crash like it was in 2020? I don't think so, but again, I can't tell you for sure, but it will be a probably a very strong decline, I believe, that we'll see back down to those regions.
And will dividends be affected there? I don't think so. I think what will happen is once you – you'll then get a corrective rally back up and then you'll have a crash. Probably during that next crash, you'll probably start seeing some real big issues in companies across the world.
And I think that's when you're going to start seeing the dividend issues, but it's going to be over time. The dividend issue is going to take place over time.
Find out more about Avi's investing group, The Market Pinball Wizard
Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
