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Foreword
Warren Buffett Stocks: Analyzing The Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio
Dan Burrows says in Kiplinger Investing:
"The Berkshire Hathaway portfolio is a diverse set of blue chips and, increasingly, lesser-known growth bets. Here's a look at every stock picked by Warren Buffett and his lieutenants."
Any collection of stocks is more clearly understood when subjected to yield-based (dogcatcher) analysis, this Buffett/Berkshire batch is perfect for the dogcatcher process. Here are the August 28 data for 25 dividend paying stocks in the Kiplinger-documented collection of 41 now owned by Warren Buffett through his Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) (BRK.A) firm.
Another resource consulted for this article was Dogs of the Dow, which also keeps an ongoing spreadsheet of the Buffett/Berkshire stocks updated quarterly per BRK SEC filings, the next of which reports in November.
A rapid market recovery, following the Ides of March 2020 plunge, made the possibility of owning productive dividend shares from the Buffett collection unreachable for first-time investors.
This August 2024 update shows that the following two of the top ten dogs of Berkshire stocks by yield now live up to the dogcatcher ideal of paying annual dividends (from a $1K investment) exceeding their single share prices: The Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC); Sirius XM (SIRI).
The one formerly outside the top ten as ideal last month, Paramount Global (PARA), was shown sold off as reported in Berkshire’s August SEC filing.
Six more in the top ten by yield are within $28.50 or 40% of the ideal. Ally Financial (ALLY) is just $8.55 over-priced, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) is $8.50 removed, Coca-Cola (KO) needs to shed $15.31, Diageo (DEO) is $17.44 away, The Kroger Co. (KR) can afford to drop $22.54, and Bank of America (BAC) is just $28.43 high in bloated price to become ideal.
To run down the “safer” dividends of Buffett’s BRK August pack of dogs, check-out the Dividend Dog Catcher investing group site (by clicking on the last summary bullet above) after September 10.
Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Estimated 10.37% To 26.4% Net Gains For Ten Top BRK-Held Dividend Stocks Come August 2025
Three of these ten Buffett-held top dividend stocks by yield were also among the top ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart below). Thus, this yield-based forecast for Buffett dogs was graded by Wall St. Wizards as 70% accurate.
Source: YCharts.com
Estimated-dividends from $1000 invested in each of these highest-yielding stocks and their aggregate one-year analyst median target-prices, as reported by YCharts, produced the data points for the projections below. (Note: one-year target prices by lone-analysts were not applied.) Ten probable profit-generating trades projected to August 30, 2025 were:
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) was projected to net $263.96 based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 24 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 58% greater than the market as a whole.
Chevron Corp. (CVX) netted $233.12 based on the median of estimates from 22 analysts, plus dividends. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 10% greater than the market as a whole.
Citigroup Inc. (C) was projected to net $178.38, based on the median of target price estimates from 20 analysts plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 49% over the market as a whole.
Sirius XM Holdings Inc was projected to net $175.55, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 12 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 8% over the market as a whole.
The Kraft Heinz Co was projected to net $150.36, based on the median of target price estimates from 21 analysts plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 51% under the market as a whole.
Bank of America Corp was projected to net $134.54 based on the median of target price estimates from 22 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 24% over the market as a whole.
Capital One Financial (COF) was projected to net $106.86, based on the median of target estimates from 17 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 45% greater than the market as a whole.
The Kroger Co. netted $105.96 based on the median of estimates from 34 analysts, plus dividends. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 4% less than the market as a whole.
Visa Inc. (V) was projected to net $105.82 based on a median of target price estimates from 34 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 10% under the market as a whole.
Ally Financial was projected to net $103.68 based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 19 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 41% over the market as a whole.
The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 15.58% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten stocks. These gain estimates were subject to average risk/volatility 17% over the market as a whole.
Source: Open source dog art from dividenddogcatcher.com
The Dividend Dogs Rule
Stocks earned the “dog” moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as “dogs.” More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, “underdogs.”
41 BRK Holdings By Target Gains
Source: YCharts.com
25 BRK Picks By Yield
Source: YCharts.com
Actionable Conclusions (11-20): 10 Top BRK-Held Stocks By Yield Are The August Dogs of Berkshire-Hathaway
Top ten Buffett/Berkshire-held stocks selected 8/30/24 by yield represented five of eleven Morningstar sectors.
In first place was one of four consumer staples sector representatives, The Kraft Heinz Co. [1]. The other three placed third, seventh, and ninth: Diageo PLC [3], Coca-Cola Co. [7], and The Kroger Co. [9]. Then, in second place was the lone energy sector member, Chevron Corp. [2].
Third place was owned by the first of three consumer staples members, Diageo PLC. The other members placed seventh, and ninth, Coca-Cola [7], and Kroger [9].
In fourth place was the first of four from the financial services sector, Citigroup Inc. [4]. The others placed sixth, eighth, and tenth, Ally Financial [8], and Jefferies Financial [10].
Finally, fifth place went to a lone communication services representative, Sirius XM Holdings [5], to complete the August Buffett/BRK top ten dividend dogs.
Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Top-Ten August BRK Dogs Showed 8.59%-25.85% Price Upsides, While (31) Seven -0.03% & -2.99% Downsiders Trailed
Source: YCharts.com
To quantify top-dog rankings, analyst median price target estimates provided a “market sentiment” gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, analyst median price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.
Analysts Forecast A 15.18% Advantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced, Of 10 Top Berkshire Dividend Stocks To August 2025
Ten-top Berkshire dividend dogs were culled by yield for this update. Yield (dividend/price) results provided by YCharts did the ranking.
Source: YCharts.com
As noted above, the top ten Buffett-chosen dividend dogs screened 8/30/24 showing the highest dividend yields represented five of eleven Morningstar sectors.
Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Projected 5 Lowest-Priced Of The Top Ten Highest-Yield Berkshire Dogs (31) Delivering 13.4% Vs. (32) 11.64% Average Net Gains by All Ten Come August 30, 2025
Source: YCharts.com
$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten dividend Buffett-selected kennel by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 15.18% more gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The tenth lowest-priced selection, Chevron, was projected to deliver the best analyst-estimated net gain of 23.31%.
Source: YCharts.com
The five lowest-priced top-yield BRK stocks August 30 were: Sirius XM; Kraft Heinz; Bank of America; Ally; Kroger, with prices ranging from $3.30 to $53.21.
Five higher-priced Berkshire-backed dividend dogs as of August 30 were: Jefferies; Citigroup; Coca-Cola; Diageo; Chevron, whose prices ranged from $59.95 to $147.95.
The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' “basic method” for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains, based on analyst targets, added a unique element of “market sentiment” gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 15% to 85% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 15% accurate on the degree of change (within 2.5%).
Afterword
If somehow you missed the suggestion of the four stocks ready for pick-up, and the six emerging ideal picks at the start of the article, here is a reprise of the list at the end:
This August 2024 update shows that the following two top dogs of Berkshire stocks now live up to the dogcatcher ideal of paying annual dividends (from a $1K investment) exceeding their single share prices.
Source: YCharts.com
One more is within $8.55 or 19.8% of the ideal, Ally Financial Inc, and another Jefferies Financial, is within $8.50 or 20.86%. Those stocks show the smallest price decrease that would pay dividends at the current payout level from $1k invested equal to (or greater than) its single share price.
To run-down all the “safer” dividends of Berkshire’s August pack of dogs, check-out the Dividend Dog Catcher investing group site (by clicking on the last summary bullet above) after August 9.
Price Drops or Dividend Increases Could Get All Ten Dogs of Berkshire Back to “Fair Price” Rates For Investors
Source: YCharts.com
The charts above retain the recent dividend amount and adjust share price to produce a yield (from $1K invested) to equal or exceed the single share price of each stock. As you can see, this illustration shows the two fair priced dogs in the top ten, plus eight out-of- bounds-priced stocks. The outliers need to trim prices between $8.50 and $67.22 to realize the 50/50 goal for share prices equaling dividend payouts from $10k invested.
The alternative, of course, would be for these companies to raise their dividends. That, of course, is a lot to ask in these highly disrupted, dollar-flooded, understaffed, short-supplied, inflationary, and pre-recession times.
Market action is the key. Mr. Market needs to plunge about 45.8% for all ten to become Berkshire Ideal dividend dogs.
The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor-in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of “dividends” from any investment.
Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your Buffett/Berkshire batch stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.
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