Still Avoiding Union Pacific

Patrick Doyle
7.33K Followers

Summary

  • Despite impressive financial performance, Union Pacific remains a poor investment compared to risk-free alternatives like the 10-Year Treasury Note.
  • The stock trades at near decade-high valuations, with a negative risk premium and high recession probability, making it too risky.
  • Market expectations for Union Pacific's growth are overly optimistic, with a predicted 6% growth rate deemed excessive and risky.
  • Given the current valuation and economic conditions, it's prudent to avoid Union Pacific and seek safer investments like Treasury Notes.

Train Cars Carrying Oil Derailed

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It’s been about 11 months since I suggested that shares of Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE:UNP) are less compelling than the 10-Year Treasury Note, and in that time, the shares have returned about 20.25% against a

This article was written by

7.33K Followers
I'm a quant investment newsletter writer who marries fundamental analysis with the latest research in momentum. Over the past few years, I’ve developed a piece of software that helps me track the level of optimism and pessimism embedded in stock price. I seek to challenge the assumptions embedded in price by profitably exploiting the disconnect between what the market thinks and what is a likely outcome. I invest in those companies that have a greater than average chance of giving us all a surprise in the next few months.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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