Infosys: Exposed To Western Risks, But A Medium-Term Buy

Sep. 23, 2024 3:16 AM ETInfosys Limited (INFY) StockINFY
Oliver Rodzianko
4.2K Followers
(11min)

Summary

  • Infosys is at a medium-term inflection point, with strong growth estimates in FY26 and FY27 approaching after a relatively flat FY24.
  • Based on my market psychology analysis, I believe the stock could deliver a total return of approximately 15% over the next 12 months.
  • While the medium-term thesis is strong, the longer-term thesis faces broader risks, including AI growth slowdown and Western macroeconomic recession.
  • As INFY is headquartered in India but sources most of its growth from Western countries, it is not a viable hedge against current Western economic weakness.
  • Despite this, Infosys is a medium-term Buy, but it deserves careful monitoring for extended overvaluation and potential negative catalysts that could emerge in a few years.
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kasezo

I've not covered Infosys (NYSE:INFY) before, but it's a company I've had my eye on for some time. Despite it being an Indian multinational company, it has very little of its operating revenue sourced from the country. Instead, while it is headquartered in India, over

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4.2K Followers
Oliver Rodzianko is the Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Invictus Origin, a pioneering high-alpha investment management firm launched in May 2025, dedicated to becoming a globally recognized, actively managed fund. Invictus Origin is developing innovative portfolio strategies, notably through its flagship Nasdaq High-Alpha Black Swan Portfolio, strategically designed to sustainably outperform the Nasdaq-100. Distinctively, this portfolio maintains approximately 20% in strategic cash reserves, providing robust downside protection and exceptional flexibility during significant market disruptions. Oliver brings extensive experience as a macro-focused investment analyst specializing in public equities. His disciplined approach emphasizes fundamental valuation, long-term market cycles, and sector expertise in technology, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and energy. His investment process integrates U.S. market specialization with comprehensive international market awareness.Oliver has built a strong reputation as an Investment Analyst for leading platforms including Seeking Alpha, TipRanks, and GuruFocus, consistently providing high-level, actionable insights to a broad audience of sophisticated investors, including several industry-leading public figures who engage with his work regularly. His research and portfolio management capabilities are firmly on track to consistently deliver durable outperformance, capturing asymmetric upside by strategically navigating market dislocations and intrinsic value cycles. As CEO of Invictus Origin, Oliver leverages this expertise to establish a firm characterized by resilience, performance, and disciplined capital stewardship, further supported by the ongoing development of a complementary family office structure dedicated to lower-volatility capital preservation.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of GOOGL either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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