September Jobs Report Shows 50 Bps Rate Cut Was Unnecessary, Stagflation On Tap

Oct. 04, 2024 4:14 PM ETS&P 500 Index (SP500), SPX, DJI, NDXSPY, IVV, VOO, VTI, DIA, IWM, QQQ, INDU, RTY5 Comments
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J.G. Collins
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(17min)

Summary

  • September saw a surprising 254,000 new jobs, far exceeding the 147,000 estimate, with revisions for July and August adding 72,000 more jobs.
  • Despite strong job growth, concerns about stagflation persist due to elevated government spending and a recent 50 bps Fed rate cut, which may fuel inflation.
  • The Fed's balance sheet remains excessively large, risking inflation, while geopolitical tensions and reckless fiscal policies threaten long-term economic stability.
  • Expect GDP growth to slow, unemployment to rise, and inflation to escalate, reinforcing the outlook for a stagflation cycle with tepid growth and higher unemployment.

A red arrow pointing downwards on top of a pile of US dollar bills.

mohd izzuan/iStock via Getty Images

NEW YORK (October 4) — The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced a surprising 254,000 new jobs in September, according to the Establishment Survey, a collection of job creation data from businesses. The number

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2.87K Followers
Before establishing The Stuyvesant Square Consultancy, J.G. Collins spent some 30 years building a career in executive and consulting financial roles, with a particular emphasis in business taxation. His experience spans work for Fortune 100 companies, one of the former “Big Eight” international accounting firms, and client service for large middle-market public accounting firms. He has advised domestic and foreign clients in the tax-efficient structuring of legal entities, effective tax rate planning, mergers and acquisitions, corporate reorganizations, treasury operations, financial instruments, international taxation, tax accounting under GAAP, state and local taxation, and sales and miscellaneous taxes. He has managed countless federal and state tax audits to successful resolutions for clients. His experience spans a diverse array of industries, including private equity, motion pictures and music entertainment, fashion, real estate, publishing, technology development, retail, and oil and gas. Mr. Collins conceived and branded the specialty industry entertainment practice of one of the nation’s leading accounting firms and oversaw the business tax marketing program for business enterprises of another large regional firm. Mr. Collins’ marketing collateral and published articles have been extraordinarily well received because of his ability to present intricate and complex aspects of tax, business, policy, and politics in clear, concise, easily understandable prose devoid of jargon and irrelevant detail. An astute, data-driven observer of business, politics and economics, Mr. Collins has advised political candidates and public officials on campaign, political and policy matters for more than two decades, and has twice been a delegate to his political party’s national quadrennial convention to nominate the American president. His expertise as a champion debater and orator in his student days, along with his savvy marketing expertise, has allowed Mr. Collins to coach private and public sector executives and candidates on public speaking, speech writing, message development and successful business presentations. Campaign collateral he developed for political campaigns has been used in university courses as an “excellent example of persuasive campaign advertising”. Mr. Collins holds degrees in Economics and Accounting from the Stern School of Business, New York University. His elective coursework included a number of political science courses, including International Politics, International Organizations, European Politics and other more basic political science courses.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

________________________________________________________________ The views expressed, including the outcome of future events, are the opinions of the Stuyvesant Square Consultanc and its management only as of October 4, 2024. They will not be revised for events after this document was submitted to Seeking Alpha editors for publication. Statements herein do not represent, and should not be considered to be, investment advice. You should not use this article for that purpose. This article includes forward-looking statements as to future events that may or may not develop as the writer opines. Before making any investment decision you should consult your own investment, business, legal, tax, and financial advisers. We associate with principals of Technometrica, co-publishers of the TIPP Economic Optimism Index, on survey work in some elements of our business.

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