Matteo Colombo
The macro picture over the next decade looks quite bleak to me. The US economy is at the tail end of the long-term debt cycle which began after the 1929 stock market crash and the Great Depression of the
S&P 500: A Stagflationary Lost Decade Is Likely Approaching
Summary
- The U.S. economy faces a bleak future due to the long-term debt cycle, leading to higher inflation and potential stagflation.
- Historical patterns suggest the S&P 500 is due for a long-term drawdown, with real returns likely to suffer.
- AI productivity gains and the Fed buying equities is a possible counterargument to this thesis.
- Despite these risks, holding US equities for their dividends should be fine.
Cogent investment views on digital assets, macro, and derivatives. BTC Maxi. My investment philosophy centers around deep fundamentals, impactful narratives, and Austrian economics. Time horizon is the primary dividing factor for investment research. Long-horizon research will focus on digital assets, macro, and general value opportunities. Emphasis is placed on a global, long-run macro view as the basis for these investment considerations. Short-horizon research will focus on options and volatility for income generation and hedging.Personally, I do business development and communications for a decentralized finance (DeFi) startup that brings capital efficient spot and derivatives trading to crypto. I have a few years of investing experience, a strong finance and economics background, and working proficiency in Python programming.
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