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Investment Thesis
Since our last coverage, Nvidia Corporation's (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock has grown by a modest 5%, reflecting market caution ahead of Q3 FY25 earnings. However, the upcoming earnings report on
Nvidia: Q3 Earnings Could Ignite $200 Rally
Summary
- Nvidia Corporation’s Q3 FY25 revenue forecast is $32.5 billion, reflecting an 81.8% YoY growth driven by Hopper and Blackwell GPUs.
- Blackwell GPU production accelerates in Q4 2024, with units priced at $30K–$40K and demand outstripping supply.
- Nvidia’s operating margin has grown to 68%, highlighting profitability from strong data center demand and high-margin products.
- Supply chain risks arise from Super Micro’s instability, prompting Nvidia to diversify suppliers like Gigabyte and ASRock.
- Nvidia’s RSI at 64.56 and strong VPT suggest bullish momentum, with a potential upside to $204 based on Fibonacci extension levels.
Hi, I'm Yiannis. Spotting winners before they break out is what I do best.Experience: Previously worked at Deloitte and KPMG in external/internal auditing and consulting. Education: Chartered Certified Accountant, Fellow Member of ACCA Global, with BSc and MSc degrees from U.K. business schools. Investment Style: Spotting high-potential winners before they break out, focusing on asymmetric opportunities (with at least upside potential of 2-3X outweighing the downside risk). By leveraging market inefficiencies and contrarian insights, we seek to maximize long-term compounding while protecting against capital impairment.Risk management is paramount—we seek a strong margin of safety to protect against capital impairment while maximizing long-term compounding. Our 4-5 year investment horizon allows us to ride out volatility, ensuring that patience, discipline, and intelligent capital allocation drive outsized returns over time.Investment Methodology: Identifying High-Conviction Opportunities1️⃣ Leadership & Management Analysis • Proven track record in scaling businesses. • Smart capital allocation and insider ownership. • Consistent revenue growth and credible guidance. 2️⃣ Market Disruption & Competitive Positioning • Strong technology moat and first-mover advantage. • Network effects that drive exponential growth. • Market penetration in high-growth industries. 3️⃣ Financial Health & Risk Management • Sustainable revenue growth with efficient cash flow. • Strong balance sheet and long-term survival runway. • Avoiding excessive dilution and financial weakness. 4️⃣ Valuation & Asymmetric Risk/Reward • Revenue multiples vs. peers and DCF modeling. • Institutional backing and market sentiment analysis. • Ensuring downside protection with massive upside. 5️⃣ Portfolio Construction & Risk Control • Core Positions (50-70%) – High-confidence, stable plays. • Growth Bets (20-40%) – High-risk, high-reward opportunities. • Speculative (5-10%) – Moonshot disruptors with massive potential.
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