Annual Bond Market Returns: Jay Powell Would Probably Like To Return To A Positively Sloped Yield Curve

Summary

• As of 10/31/24, the iShares +20-year Treasury Bond ETF’s (TLT) 10-year annual return was -0.07%. As of Friday, 11/15/24, that 10-year annual return is even worse at -0.34%.
• The best-performing asset class in terms of the 1-year return is the iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB), which at present has an SEC yield of 5.92%.
• The Treasury yield curve is still inverted, since the fed funds rate target is 4.625% as of November 7th’s FOMC announcement, while the 10-year Treasury closed last week and the week prior at 4.43% and 4.31% respectively.

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Here’s the annual returns for the various bond asset classes as of 10/31/24:

The surprising metric as of 10/31/24 was TLT, or the iShares +20-year Treasury Bond ETF’s, 10-year annual return of -0.07%. That’s a negative 10-year total return. As of Friday, 11/15/24, that 10-year