NVIDIA: Getting Some Mixed Signals (NASDAQ:NVDA)

Summary

For the first time in NVIDIA's upcycle, there are broad downward revisions in expected capex from key customers. This, along with emerging in-sourcing trends are brewing headwinds.
The impact of insourcing on pricing and a margin dip as Blackwell production ramps up may dampen margins for at least a year, and likely more.
Valuations are more appealing now at a 1-yr fwd PE level of 36.0x. NVDA stock is still seeing strong fundamental earnings growth.
Relative technicals vs. the S&P500 remain in bullish flow, but new buy entries may be riskier as the ratio prices are currently at a key weekly resistance level.
The extent of revenue guidance beats vs. consensus has been falling over the past 6 quarters, indicating that NVDA stock is increasingly getting more 'priced in'.

Performance Assessment

By having a 'Neutral/Hold' stance, I've missed some upside on NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) since my last update on the stock:

Thesis

Q3 FY25's earnings resulted in yet another beat on revenues by 5.9% over consensus estimates. Management's commentary continues

Hunting Alpha

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