Hewlett Packard Enterprise: Positioned Well For Multi-Year Outperformance

Hunting Alpha
6.6K Followers
(9min)

Summary

  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise has strong growth prospects, enabled by customers' adoption of its GreenLake and AI solutions. Revenue quality is also increasing with greater annualized revenue streams.
  • HPE is trading at an attractive 30.6% discount to its peers. A higher annuity portion of revenues is a catalyst for multiple re-rating.
  • A strong, multi-year breakout is imminent on the relative technicals after more than 2 years of consolidation after a sharp V-shaped recovery from support levels.
  • An explosion in net working capital suggests that growth is enabled via the provisioning of financing solutions. Worsening cash flow conversion metrics and credit quality are key risks to monitor.
  • My thesis is focused on the operating business of HPE. Hence, my bullish view is applicable to both the equity share class and the convertible preferred equity share class. I am invested in the equity shares as I believe that has more upside potential, albeit at a higher risk.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (<span class='ticker-hover-wrapper'>NYSE:<a href='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HPE' title='Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company'>HPE</a></span>) corporate headquarters located in Silicon Valley

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Thesis

I am bullish on Hewlett Packard Enterprises (HPE) (NYSE:HPE.PR.C):

  1. HPE has strong growth prospects with improving revenue quality
  2. HPE is trading at an attractive discount to its peers
  3. A strong breakout is imminent on the relative

This article was written by

6.6K Followers
I aim to provide alpha-generating investment ideas. I am an independent investor managing my family's portfolio, primarily via a Self Managed Super Fund. You can expect my articles to deliver a clearly structured, evidence-based thesis. But first and foremost, I encourage readers to judge me on my performance.I have a generalist approach as I explore, analyze and invest in any sector so long there is perceived alpha potential vs the S&P500. The typical holding period ranges between a few quarters to multiple years.A bit about how I approach research and coverage of a stock:I build and maintain comprehensive spreadsheets showing historical data on the financials, key metric disclosures, data on the guidance and surprise trends vs consensus estimates, time-series values of the valuations vs peers, data on key coincident or leading indicators of performance and other monitorables. In addition to the company's filings, I also keep tabs on relevant industry news and reports plus other people's coverage of the stock. In some cases, such as during times of a CEO change, I will do a deep dive on a key leader's background and his/her past performance record.I very rarely build DCFs and project financials many years out into the future as I don't think it adds much value. Instead, I find it more useful to assess how a company has delivered and the broad outlook on the 5 key drivers of a DCF valuation: revenues, costs and margins, cash flow conversion, capex and investments and the interest rates (which affect the discount rate/opportunity cost of capital).Associated with VishValue Research

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of HPE, VOO either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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