Tesla Robotaxi: Potentially $1.3 Trillion Of Incremental Enterprise Value In 2030
Summary
- I previously voiced a negative opinion on Tesla, Inc. stock, but I must now acknowledge the potential of Tesla's robotaxi business, reflecting on progress achieved through FSD 1.
- Estimating robotaxi economics involves calculating fixed and variable costs, with a break-even revenue of $14,000/year and a target profit of $10,000/year.
- A robotaxi needs to earn $0.48/mile to hit a $10,000 annual profit, which is competitive compared to current ride-hailing rates in cities like San Francisco.
- Tesla could partner with Uber or Lyft, netting $0.75/mile after a 25% commission, resulting in a $14,125 annual profit per vehicle.
- Building on reasonable assumptions. According to my estimates, the robotaxi business line could potentially add $1.3 trillion of enterprise value to Tesla by 2030.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Not financial advice
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.