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Since my last analysis of Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock in December 2024, it has lost 13% in price. I issued a Buy rating at the time. As this analysis will show, I consider most of that price
Nvidia Stock: Buy The DeepSeek Fear Now To Avoid Regret Later (Rating Upgrade)
Summary
- Nvidia remains critical to AI despite DeepSeek's cost-efficient R1 model. Current market fear represents a buying opportunity with 87.5% base-case upside in 12 months.
- Nvidia's growth depends on stable U.S.-China relations. Diplomatic tension over Taiwan poses a greater long-term risk than competition from Chinese AI innovations.
- At a fair P/E multiple of 50-56, my Nvidia January 2026 price target is $222-$248.50, supported by a 75% EPS CAGR. The current price of $118.50 offers significant upside.
Oliver Rodzianko is an investment analyst specializing in the technology sector, grounded in timeless value principles. His expertise spans AI, semiconductors, software, and renewable energy, with a focus on companies that demonstrate resilient management and lasting competitive advantages. A trusted voice in financial analysis, Rodzianko’s insights are frequently highlighted as 'Must Reads' on Seeking Alpha, syndicated to Forbes via GuruFocus, and published on TipRanks.Rodzianko specializes in value trading at inflection points without leverage and without short interest. He typically holds investments for one to two years, selling them at fair value. Additionally, he models a wealth-preservation portfolio and employs advanced risk-mitigation strategies to protect against and capitalize on recessions and market crashes. Rodzianko Asset Management Rating System:Strong Buy: For value trading, Oliver Rodzianko anticipates an annual return of 30% or above for the time period specified in the analysis. For long-term investments, an annual return of 20% or above is expected for the time period specified in the analysis.Buy: For value trading, Oliver Rodzianko anticipates an annual return of 25% or above for the time period specified in the analysis. For long-term investments, an annual return of 15% or above is expected for the time period specified in the analysis.Hold: For value trading, Oliver Rodzianko anticipates an annual return of 15% or above for the time period specified in the analysis. For long-term investments, an annual return of 10% or above is expected for the time period specified in the analysis.Sell: For value trading, Oliver Rodzianko anticipates an annual return of at least 0%, but generally well below 10%, for the time period specified in the analysis. For long-term investments, he similarly expects an annual return of at least 0%, yet typically under 10%, for the time period specified in the analysis.Strong Sell: For value trading, Oliver Rodzianko anticipates zero or negative annual returns for the time period specified in the analysis. For long-term investments, he similarly anticipates zero or negative returns for the time period specified in the analysis.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NVDA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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