Teradyne: AI SoCs Are Driving TAM Growth

(14min)

Summary

  • Teradyne's price drop is seen as an overreaction; AI-driven SoC TAM growth and reduced mobile dependence make it a good entry point.
  • The company's Semi Testing segment shows promise with AI applications driving TAM expansion, while the robotics segment struggles with low margins and growth.
  • Management's optimistic 2028 revenue and EPS targets imply significant growth, but market conditions and Chinese competition pose risks.
  • Current valuation aligns with today's stock price; earnings growth and market confidence in 2026 prospects are crucial for appreciation.

Teradyne headquarters in North Reading, MA, United States

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After the last earnings call, Teradyne (NASDAQ:TER) experienced a significant drawdown from $140 to today's level, despite beating both revenue and earnings expectations. The market viewed the revenue guidance as weak. I believe this correction was an overreaction, and therefore, I’ll present

This article was written by

I'm a full-time analyst and portfolio manager of a technology fund with 5 years of experience. I graduated in Mechanical Engineering from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) and École Centrale de Lyon (France). I'm currently licensed by the Brazilian Securities Commission (CVM) as both a portfolio manager and an investment consultant. I also completed CFA Level II in 2024. I previously worked in the oil and gas sector before making a career change. I began studying global equities to invest my own money, with one of my earliest studies focusing on NVDA in 2017. Once I started diving into the semiconductor sector, I couldn't get enough of it. As a mechanical engineer, I'm an enthusiast of disruptive technologies, particularly in hardware-related fields. On this platform, I'll mainly be sharing investment ideas in semiconductors, robotics, and energy. I believe in investing in companies within oligopolistic sectors with high barriers to entry. I also tend to avoid smaller companies, as my experience has shown that the perceived risks in such companies are often underestimated. I really like writing and have published some books on other subjects. I hope my articles on Seeking Alpha can provide small investors with great investment ideas. My investment approach emphasizes growth at a reasonable price, primarily with a mid- to long-term investment horizon. If you have any questions or comments on my thesis, please reach out via direct message or leave a comment on the article. Keep investing!

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