Microchip Technology: MCHP Needs To Show Tangible Improvements (Rating Downgrade)

(8min)

Summary

  • Downgrade MCHP to hold due to persistent revenue declines, inventory overhang, and deteriorating margins, with no immediate turnaround in sight.
  • 3Q25 results showed a 42% y/y revenue decline, with gross margin compressing to 54.7% and EBIT margin dropping to 15.7%.
  • Inventory levels remain critically high, impacting revenue growth and margins, with distributors still working through existing stock.
  • Despite the potential for a future rebound, MCHP must demonstrate tangible improvements to justify a meaningful re-rating of its stock.

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Investment Summary

My previous investment thought on Microchip Technology (NASDAQ:MCHP) was a buy rating as I expected a turnaround soon. However, I was wrong, apparently. The turnaround did not come, and persistent weakness continues to weigh on performance. I am now

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I focus on long-term investments while incorporating short-term shorts to uncover alpha opportunities. My investment approach revolves around bottom-up analysis, delving into the fundamental strengths and weaknesses of individual companies. My investment duration is the medium to long-term. Ultimately, I aim to identify companies with solid fundamentals, sustainable competitive advantages, and growth potential.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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