Joe Hendrickson
SoFi's (NASDAQ:SOFI) share price has been weak after the release of 4Q24 results on 27 Jan 2025. Share price had fallen almost 18% in two weeks until a recent rebound late last week. While 4Q24 results delivered a double beat
SoFi Technologies: CEO's Upgraded Guidance Supercharges My Confidence
Summary
- SoFi's share price fell 18% post-4Q24 results despite double beat in revenue and EPS, due to conservative 2025 EPS guidance and skepticism about 2026 projections.
- CEO Anthony Noto has subtly raised 2026 guidance during the BofA conference with >25% revenue CAGR in 2023-26 (from 20-25%) and 20% NPM and 20-30% ROE in the long term.
- I estimate SoFi to deliver $0.76 EPS in 2026 given the upgraded guidance, very close to the high bar of the EPS guidance of $0.8.
- I rate SoFi stock a Strong Buy with a $19 price target based on 25x FY26 P/E. Considering the strong guidance track record, my PT could raise to $23 under a blue-sky scenario.
With over 14 years of experience as a sellside equity analyst specializing in the HK/China market, I have developed a deep understanding and keen insight into various sectors. For the past eight years, I have been focusing on China’s oil & gas and chemicals stocks at Citi, where I honed my expertise in analyzing market trends, evaluating company performance, and providing investment recommendations. Prior to this, I covered China’s metals and mining stocks, gaining a broad perspective on the dynamics and challenges within this industry. My extensive experience has equipped me with a robust skill set in financial analysis, research, and strategic thinking. I am adept at identifying market opportunities, understanding complex financial data, and delivering actionable insights to help investors make informed decisions. My career has been driven by a passion for uncovering value and providing clarity in a rapidly changing market landscape. I am excited to bring my knowledge and skills to Seeking Alpha, where I aim to share my views on various sectors and stocks. Through in-depth analysis and thoughtful commentary, my goal is to provide readers with valuable insights that can guide their investment strategies. I believe in the power of informed decision-making and am committed to contributing meaningful content that reflects the latest market developments and opportunities.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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