The Party May Be Ending For Costco's Stock

Stuart Allsopp
6.82K Followers
(7min)

Summary

  • Costco's stock price has surged 50% since April last year, pushing its PE ratio from 45x to 62x, despite modest sales and earnings growth.
  • Valuation multiples easily surpass those seen on Walmart's stock at its bubble peak in the late-1990s.
  • Sales are growing at around just 4% annually, while margins face pressure from Trump's tariffs on China.
  • Recent stock price weakness could become self-fulfilling as investors who bought on the basis of the stock's uptrend are forced to reverse their positions.

A Costco Wholesale entrance store Warehouse store in Sarcee Trail NW, Calgary.

Marvin Samuel Tolentino Pineda

In the first bearish note on Costco (NASDAQ:COST) I put out in April last year I argued that the company's lofty valuations contrasted with the company's slow growth track record and future outlook. Since

This article was written by

6.82K Followers
I am a full-time investor and owner of Icon Economics - a macro research company focussed on providing contrarian investment ideas across FX, Equities, and Fixed Income based on Austrian economic theory. Formerly Head of Financial Markets at Fitch Solutions, I have 15 years of experience investing and analysing Asian and Global markets.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial short position in the shares of COST either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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